GDP
The IFF China Report 2020: China’s opening-up
Extending from east to west, China’s Belt and Road Initiative now encompasses as much as 65% of the world’s countries and a significant portion of global GDP. When first announced, investment was primarily targeted at transport infrastructure – but this…
Crises enliven ‘totalitarian temptations’
The coronavirus pandemic will embolden governments and bodies such as the International Monetary Fund to grasp for more power, writes Steve Hanke
The Tokyo Olympics: downside risks prevail
The Bank of Japan’s latest stimulus effort seems to be weak, and comes at a time when the benefits of hosting the Tokyo Olympics may be overstated – even if the games still take place
Policy responses to Covid-19
The coronavirus outbreak poses a real threat to the global economy, writes Sayuri Shirai
RBI economists build nowcast using dynamic factor model
Model closely tracks recent slowdown in activity, authors say
Competitive devaluation would harm US, Brookings paper warns
Trump’s calls to devalue currency would have damaging effects if followed, researchers say
IMF delays Argentina forecasts due to uncertainty
Current forecast shows economy contracting by 1.3% in 2021 and inflation falling to 17%
King calls for radical shake-up to escape ‘low-growth trap’
Central bank models fail to appreciate demand-side secular stagnation; IMF could help to drive country-specific policies to reallocate resources
Fed researchers model impact of recent trade uncertainty
Trade uncertainty could account for a 1–2% decline in US investment, researchers say
Inflation edges higher as Fed prepares for next meeting
Consumer spending boosts economy, but recent sentiment data suggests it could be about change
Kansas Fed develops real-time GDP tracker
The tracker builds on previous work by combining two forecast models
BoE under pressure with July inflation release
Bank of England must deal with recent fall in GDP and Brexit uncertainty
PBoC is navigating into uncharted waters on RMB
Beijing and its central bank need to think carefully and act responsibly as the renminbi is steered into uncharted waters
‘Night-time luminosity’ can shed light on growth – RBI paper
Satellite data is useful as a high-frequency indicator of economic activity, authors find
South African central bank cuts rates after first-quarter growth plunge
South Africa saw 3.2% GDP contraction in first quarter after major power shortages
Malaysian central bank holds rates
Policy stance remains accommodative as central bank forecasts rising inflation
Putting modern monetary theory to the test
Sayuri Shirai asks whether MMT might hold the solution to Japan’s stagnation
Finnish researchers propose new crisis indicator
Bank of Finland paper compares short term credit-to-GDP ratio to "Basel gap"
Lagarde sends warning on US corporate and fiscal debt
Non-financial corporate liabilities reached nearly $20 trillion in Q1 2019, Fed data shows
A powerful new force – Central banks and climate-related risks
Increasing global concern about climate change is causing central banks to take notice of the issue and its potential implications. Frédéric Samama, head of institutional client coverage at Amundi, examines the findings of Central Banking’s survey on…
US corporates ‘substantially’ more leveraged than thought – Dallas Fed researchers
Using a broader measure than debt-to-GDP, levels are almost double, they say
Rwanda slashes rates to record low of 5%
Governor predicts steady growth for the country
Mester not yet convinced on alternative monetary policy frameworks
Enhancing Fed communication is an “essential component”, Cleveland Fed chief says
The IFF China Report 2019
Insight and perspectives from the world's leaders, premier policy-makers and financiers