Policy-makers and staff often determine headline forecasts

Joint approach may help conquer systemic bias

Decisions over final headline forecasts are often a joint effort between central bank staff and senior policy-makers.

Headline forecasts are those that are ultimately published as part of a policy decision statement or monetary policy report. These can include inflation, unemployment and GDP.

Thirty-three central banks, excluding two national central bank ECB members, gave data on who determines the final headline forecasts at their central bank – as between policy-makers, staff, or both.


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