Forecasting and narratives under uncertainty
Jagjit Chadha argues the Bank of England should deploy better analysis as the basis for clearer communication
I was appointed director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) in 2016, shortly after prime minister David Cameron had called a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union. The institute had been publishing a regular economic forecast since 1959, and I quickly learnt that our view would provide a focal point for much of the economic commentary in the run-up to the referendum and subsequent policy choices. What was also clear was that we now faced a huge
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