Research
ECB paper uses financial conditions indices to help predict growth developments
Working paper presents indices for three industrialised and five emerging economies; authors say they are a potential leading indicator for eurozone external environment
Bank of Finland paper sees inefficiencies driving China’s internet finance
Boom in internet finance presents stability risks and appears to be the result of inefficiencies in the existing financial system; authors recommend market-based reforms to redress the balance
Lower liquidity has impeded Swedish markets, central bank survey shows
The Swedish markets are functioning 'slightly less well' than six months ago and will deteriorate further, a risk survey conducted by Sveriges Riksbank finds
Money-inflation link shows signs of breaking down - Bundesbank paper
Researchers present evidence that money growth and inflation are losing synchronicity in the medium- to long-run, although the relationship still holds in the very long-run
Global housing trends can predict domestic financial stability – Norges Bank paper
Crisis probability increases markedly when ‘bubble-like behaviour' in the housing and credit markets coincides with high leverage, research shows
Oil price forecast errors impact wider inflation estimates, Banque de France study finds
When there is ‘large’ volatility in oil prices, the pass-through of forecast errors to inflation estimates increases, research finds
Klaas Knot: It’s up to governments now
Netherlands Bank president tells parliament that European governments will have to boost growth and ‘stir up’ inflation themselves; latest central bank bulletin reinforces point
BIS paper warns Basel III likely to prove ‘challenging’ for emerging markets
Working paper points to a number of obstacles to implementing the Basel framework in emerging markets and developing economies, and suggests potential solutions
Riksbank paper examines impact of systematic bailout guarantees on bank co-ordination
Bailout regime increases expected profits from co-ordination and raises probability of competitors remaining in business, researchers argue
BIS paper finds leverage ratio more countercyclical than other capital ratios
Working paper finds evidence the leverage ratio is ‘significantly’ more countercyclical than ratios of capital to risk-weighted assets, although the effect is less powerful during crises
Spain ‘decoupled’ from other eurozone economies, says Banque de France paper
Working paper warns Spanish economy’s convergence with eurozone is ‘sluggish and incomplete’, with the sharpest decoupling beginning a year before the sovereign debt crisis
Banque de France paper studies welfare cost of uncertainty
Banque de France working paper finds that the term structure of welfare costs ‘varies substantially, predictably and with a volatility that decreases with maturity’
No evidence US prices were ‘more stable or less uncertain' before or after WWII
Experience shows ‘well-managed fiat regime' can achieve same level of moderation in price swings as gold standard, according to Bank of Korea working paper
BoJ paper finds US crisis policy more impactful on markets than European measures
Authors test policy responses to the global financial crisis including monetary, liquidity and financial sector policies, finding US announcements led to higher abnormal returns
BoJ team surveys payment innovation landscape
Central bank lays ground for retail payments innovation in Japan with survey of what has been tried elsewhere; highlights different forces driving change in each country
Swiss paper examines cost of different clearing set-ups
Research finds more sophisticated clearing arrangements for OTC trades can improve welfare – in a Pareto sense – but require more collateral
Models with time-varying parameters improve GDP forecasting, finds Croatian working paper
Research finds that Bayesian models are better at predicting short-term GDP fluctuations in Croatia than naive benchmark models
‘Fiscal devaluation’ not enough to solve competitiveness problems, IMF paper finds
Research finds rearranging taxes to shift the burden overseas has a muted effect on output, but may be useful as part of a broader package of structural reforms
Buba research links output volatility and capital flows
Discussion paper finds countries with more volatile growth rates face greater procyclicality of capital outflows, which may be a result of precautionary saving
Productivity gains in the banking industry affect interest rates, study finds
More productive banks set lower interest rates on loans and higher rates on deposits, increasing their market share, according to a study by the Bank of Spain
RBA paper aims to reduce noise in GDP calculation
Researchers combine three measures of Australian GDP to produce a measure they say is less volatile and easier to calculate
French paper considers impact of TLTROs on funding costs
Banque de France economist examines the funding conditions attached to the ECB’s targeted long-term refinancing operations; sees potential benefits for banks
Singular spectrum analysis helpful when assessing output gaps, study finds
Bank of Portugal paper analyses the ‘added value of singular spectrum analysis-based nowcasts in a real-life, policy-making scenario’
IMF paper suggests solutions to collective action problems
Working paper says difficulties in achieving cooperation when tackling global risks are surmountable; suggests taking ‘incremental steps’ and ‘realigning incentives’