Research
RBA paper unpacks central bank’s DSGE model
Authors shed light on adapted DSGE model used in Australia, emphasising its deliberate simplicity so additional features can be bolted on as needed
RBNZ paper investigates changes to inflation expectations after oil price shocks
Research suggests changes in expectations following real oil price shocks have ‘little or nothing to do with actual inflation outcomes’
Bundesbank paper finds misbehaving banks increase volatility
Model of imperfect information shows output becomes more volatile when depositors cannot fully hold bankers to account
Colombian paper extends Bernanke research on asset price bubbles
Paper delivered at the BIS extends Bernanke and Gertler’s result that central banks should not lean against asset bubbles, finding the conclusion still holds in a small open economy
RBA paper builds new model of banks’ credit losses
Model draws on new dataset and focuses on interactions between portfolio-level and macro variables in attempt to explain historical bank credit losses in Australia
BoJ paper finds QQE has not ‘significantly’ damaged bond market liquidity
Researchers compile set of liquidity indicators, finding that while government bond market liquidity has not declined significantly, it has been on a downward trend since easing was ramped up
St. Louis Fed paper considers impact of trade shocks on labour market
Working paper examines effects of trade shocks on labour markets, finding the increase in import competition from China after 2000 actually boosted aggregate US welfare
IMF paper finds no link between efficiency and Basel compliance
Banks in jurisdictions that have adopted Basel ‘Core Principles’ for supervision are no more efficient than their peers elsewhere, working paper finds
IMF paper studies interest rate spreads in Pacific Island countries
Economic size, inflation, the quality of bank balance sheets and banking sector concentration influence interest rate spreads in Pacific Island countries, finds working paper
RBA paper finds high social cost to counterfeiting
Researchers try to put a figure on how much counterfeit banknotes cost the economy; Australian economy suffers from lower counterfeiting than elsewhere
BIS paper analyses carry trades in Latin America
BIS working paper analyses currency carry trades in Latin America, the attractiveness and visibility of which have suffered in part due to regulatory changes
San Fran Fed research analyses link between inflation targeting and growth
In an economic letter, two researchers find developing economies tend not to experience the same short-term bump in growth rates as advanced economies after adopting a target
Impact of Fed’s QE often larger in EMs than US, research finds
IMF working paper examines cross-border effects of unconventional monetary policy in the United States using a global vector error-correction model
Chilean paper analyses ‘labour wedge’ cycles
The gap between the marginal rate of substitution (MRS) and the marginal productivity of labour (MPL) increases during recessions and is counter-cyclical in Chile, finds research
IMF paper analyses Islamic banking impact on economic growth
Islamic banking is ‘more flexible against shocks and more inclusive with regards to growth’, finds an IMF working paper
Centralising supervision may trigger more integration, ECB paper finds
Working paper suggests centralising supervision could create the need for even more centralisation; calls for ‘perimeter of banks’ supervised by central authority to be flexible
IMF paper lays out new capital controls dataset
IMF working paper presents new dataset of capital control restrictions on both inflows and outflows of 10 categories of assets for 100 countries between 1995 and 2013
RBA paper finds only weak support for sticky information Phillips curve
Paper provides ‘first estimates’ of a sticky information Phillips curve for Australia, finding the curve fits poorly with the inflation-targeting era but better in earlier years
Bank of Mexico paper warns of EM bond runs
Paper stresses vulnerability in face of Fed lift-off, even with low levels of leverage, noting mechanisms essentially unrelated to degree of leverage can determine financial stability
‘Unbanked’ numbers fall 20%, World Bank study finds
First update to the Global Findex database finds 700 million adults worldwide became new account holders since 2011, but two billion remain without access to basic financial services
Portuguese paper analyses crisis impact on union agreements
Bank of Portugal working paper evaluates changes in union agreements since the crisis, finding they have reduced due to ‘downward nominal wage rigidity in deflationary times’
Spanish paper finds LTROs had ‘moderate’ effect
Working paper examines the impact of two ‘very long-term refinancing operations’ conducted in 2011 and 2012, finding evidence of a bank lending channel
Dallas Fed studies debt impact on exchange rate fluctuations
Countries that are most vulnerable to a sudden shift in capital inflows and a sudden fall in the capital account have ‘a large stock of net non-foreign direct investment external liabilities’
Dutch paper finds public campaigns can boost debit card use
Working paper examines a campaign run in the Netherlands in 2007, finding it led to debit card use increasing by 2%; effects most prominent at early stage of campaign