Research
Turkish inflation seen returning to 5% in 2018
Latest projections from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey suggest headline inflation will only return to target in 2018, after it overshot October forecasts, rising to 8.8%
Kansas Fed researchers bridge gap between forward guidance data and theory
Working paper identifies empirical effects of guidance at the zero lower bound, before finding a standard model of price rigidity largely replicates the results
BIS paper says trade finance impacts global spillovers
Working paper emphasises importance of including trade finance when modelling global shocks, finding variations in price stickiness are important
Reserve accumulation can be inflationary, ECB paper says
Working paper examines the allocation of special drawing rights in 2009 to separate out the inflationary effects stemming from an increase in the monetary base and moral hazard
BoJ research estimates impact of Olympics on growth
Authors suggest Tokyo Olympics will boost Japan’s annual real GDP growth by 0.2-0.3 percentage points from 2015-2018, as tourism and construction investment picks up
BoJ regional research divisions see ‘moderate’ recovery
Nine regions report the economy has ‘continued to grow’, often at a ‘moderate’ pace, in the past three months; some note impact from emerging markets slowdown on exports and production
IMF paper seeks to capture complexity of financial development in new index
Research presents six ‘subindices’ measuring the depth, accessibility and efficiency of financial institutions and markets, which are rolled into an ‘overall measure of financial development’
ECB paper quantifies spillover from sovereign to corporate credit risk
Research studies direct spillover effects using credit default swaps and data on 226 firms from 15 European countries in aftermath of first Greek bail-out
Bundesbank paper explores interbank market functionality during crisis
The German interbank market did not fail, per se, in the 2007-8 financial crisis, a Bundesbank discussion paper argues; bank fundamentals determined ability to roll over interbank positions
Paper finds positive impact from Dodd-Frank swap rules
Compulsory trading via swap execution facilities has boosted liquidity and cut trading costs in the market for interest rate swaps, working paper published by BoE finds
BoJ paper: inflation expectations do not match target
Study of ‘dissonance’ in forecasts between economic agents and the central bank finds people only believe the BoJ will hit its target in the short to medium term – after that, inflation drops
BoE paper seeks to improve forecasts with adaptive model
Using an adaptive model in conjunction with heavy-tailed t-distributions allows authors to deliver ‘substantial improvements’ in forecasting inflation
Growing case for planning Cambodian de-dollarisation, paper says
Cambodia needs a strong macroeconomic framework for de-dollarisation to be successful, research says; economic and political stability a good starting place
Brazilian paper charts impact of inflation signal on expectations
Agents update forecasts immediately after new information is released and the impact of new information is dependent on ‘precision’, a working paper suggests
Monetary policy easing increases systemic risk-taking, paper finds
Brazilian domestic monetary policy is more statistically significant in this regard than foreign monetary policy, working paper suggests
Spanish paper models synergies between demand and supply policies in monetary union
Working paper model sees benefits in jointly implementing structural reforms in the ‘periphery’ of a union, with fiscal expansion in the ‘core’ and forward guidance on interest rates
Bank of England paper explores exchange rate pass-through using ‘big data’
Author finds the pass-through to import prices varies depending on the size of the exchange rate movement at the micro level, but it is a different story at the macro level
IMF paper compares impact of monetary and macro-prudential policies
Research considers effects of measures in ‘systemic advanced economies’ on financial conditions both at home and abroad; monetary shocks in US can have ‘significant’ impact
Korean paper explores ‘divergent’ spillovers to EMs
Macro-prudential policies key to protecting emerging markets from spillovers, research says; normalisation in the US could lead to ‘renewed tensions’
European markets may still view some banks as ‘too big to fail’, paper argues
European governments may be seen as supporting ‘national champions’ in banking, researchers say
BIS paper explores policy trade-offs in Asia-Pacific
Asia-Pacific central banks that have used macro-prudential policy to control credit growth may have faced a short-term trade-off between financial and price objectives, paper notes
Inertia an important factor in consumer banking market, paper argues
Inertia among consumers is an important factor in the market for personal banking, a study argues, stressing that policy-makers must improve their understanding of this factor
Colombian paper finds ‘negligible’ contagion effects
Contagion in the interbank market poses no real threat to the Colombian financial system, working paper notes; examines link between bank failure and liquidity
IMF paper sees Indian food prices shaping inflation dynamics
Working paper suggests food inflation will continue to outpace non-food inflation in the coming years, while potentially contributing 1.25 percentage points annually to headline figure