Research
Monetary policy tops US CFOs’ concerns
Survey finds high rates curtailing spending in 40% of firms
‘Illiquid lemon markets’ can worsen crises – NBER paper
Authors extend George Akerlof’s Nobel prize-winning work to the macroeconomy
OECD says interest rates should stay high ‘until well into 2024’
Report says monetary policy needs to stay tight until underlying inflationary pressures are lowered
IMF members will meet SDR interest payments, says paper
Fund publication notes interest rates on SDR rose sharply in last two years
Inflation behaves differently across income levels – BIS paper
Study finds various channels are behind uneven responsiveness of inflation to monetary policy
Colombian research offers advice on modelling Covid-19 shock
Pandemic is challenging to model due to its transitory impact, authors say
Pandemic may have altered US credit score reporting – paper
Government support and spending changes improved many individuals' ratings, researchers find
QE crowds out bank loans – NBER paper
Asset purchases generate “counterproductive” cut in lending to firms, authors find
Inflation battles often last more than five years, IMF paper says
Disinflations usually do not need prolonged falls in output, employment or wages
Tight monetary policy can scar economy, SF Fed research finds
Central banks may not be able to undo effects on productivity and potential output, paper says
Margining added to liquidity stress after Ukraine invasion – BIS
Bulletin article examines how tool designed to promote stability can have undesirable side effects
Inflation revisions are significant, finds NY Fed research
Understanding inflation in real time poses major difficulties, researchers say
BIS paper says reform to AT1 instruments ‘may be necessary’
Actual use of contingent bonds may clash with their original purpose, authors say
BIS paper highlights powerful information effects during SVB run
Hearing about SVB made people more likely to run, but good communications helped stem the tide
IMF paper offers ‘complete set of tools’ to model reserves demand
Authors say theirs is the first complete modelling framework for reserves demand
Deep learning models are ‘fragile’, BoE paper finds
Models suffering from “Rashomon effect” need better supervision, authors say
Surprising the market can reverse standard effects of policy, paper finds
Part of the impact of Fed decisions comes from revealing economic thinking, authors say
Supply shocks drive greater dissent on FOMC – BIS paper
Tougher trade-offs appear to reveal differences in policy-maker preferences, authors say
ECB paper explores best response to inefficient capital flows
Exchange rate pass-through is key to whether policy should tighten or loosen, authors find
Macro-pru tools can cut risk of credit bust – IMF paper
Authors explore whether building buffers can increase resilience over the medium term
Jordan revamps forecast model with richer interactions
Jam2.0 adds a fiscal block and captures more complexities of central bank policy
Policy rate is Fed’s most powerful monetary tool, says paper
Researcher tests impact of changes in short-term rate, forward guidance and asset purchases
BoE study recommends ‘simple and flexible’ CBDC infrastructure
Central bank needs to be wary of firms wielding too much market power, author says
US inflation hurting poorer citizens – St Louis Fed research
Nearly 90% of low-income households report significant stress from inflation