Research
Eurozone banks unexpectedly tightened lending – ECB survey
Respondents suggest tariffs were partly to blame for reduction in available credit for businesses
BIS study finds no long-term decline of global dollar use
Reports of euro’s demise are also greatly exaggerated, researchers say
ECB and ESRB warn of financial stability risk from geopolitics
New model takes prediction data to show US domestic politics affecting eurozone financial markets
Trade liberalisation with China increased US wages – study
Fed researchers find ‘long-suspected’ benefits for labour market
Derivatives hedging can weaken effect of capital rules – BIS paper
Banks increase use of credit default swaps when counter-cyclical buffers rise, study finds
Paper calls for ’systematic monitoring’ of cyber risks
Non-financial firms’ credit risk indicators not accounting for ‘sharp increase’ in incidents, say authors
Geopolitics a key focus for ECB supervisors – blog
European banks have fared well so far against shocks but must stay vigilant, senior officials write
Beige Books show promise at predicting recessions – study
LLM data on Fed reports is more accurate at forecasting downturns than yield spread, authors find
Fed study sounds alarm over algorithmic rises in credit limits
Researchers say US lenders are extending too much credit to subprime borrowers
Europeans have more trust in compatriot ECB officials – study
ECB messages carry more weight when delivered by officials from one’s own country, research finds
Ricardian equivalence does not hold in reality, study finds
Researchers say consumers do not fully plan ahead for expected tax liabilities
Yield curve ‘steepening’ best seen as normalisation – ECB study
Long-term borrowing costs surged but overall structure ‘not in an unusual shape’, say economists
Japanese citizens expect prices to keep rising in 2026
BoJ says it will continue to hike rates if 2% inflation target is met
Trade fragmentation still favours west over east – BdF study
Authors says US-led bloc better placed to win over neutral states than China-aligned grouping
Trad-fi ethereum adoption creates regulatory dilemma – study
Collapse in price of ether could trigger validator exodus from blockchain, Bank of Italy paper says
New England is pocket of recession risk in US – Fed study
Researchers say overall threat of national downturn is low, but requires monitoring nevertheless
Eurozone food inflation to ease in 2026 – ECB bulletin
Sticky prices have moderated in recent months and should decline further in 2026, economists say
BoE paper offers method to build narrative around forecasts
Process could support use of SVAR models in monetary policy process
IMF paper urges regulators to merge IT and cyber rules
Regulation should reflect interrelations of IT and cyber risk, report says
Private credit to play bigger role in AI boom – BIS study
Hidden leverage may dispel notion that sector poses only moderate stability risks, authors say
‘Green’ banks face lower repo rates – ECB study
Researchers say climate transition risk has implications for financial stability and policy transmission