Research
Eurozone banks tighten credit standards – ECB survey
Lending conditions for firms, consumers and homebuyers expected to become more stringent in Q4
BoE survey finds UK financial firms shifting to GenAI
Respondents expect systemic risk to increase as tech becomes more widespread
ECB economists expect food inflation to rebound in 2027
Energy costs and weather are set to reverse a slowdown that began in January
Holding limits could support CBDC adoption – ECB study
High threshold, plus reverse waterfall functionality, could mitigate stability risks, researchers say
Banrep paper proposes LLM-driven forecast method
Sequential design enables economists to study ‘information environment’
Fed finds larger-than-expected bank exposure to private credit
Researchers add sector to national accounts for first time
French prices half as sensitive to oil as in 2016 – BdF blog
Lower household fuel use and less oil-intensive production reduce pass-through to consumers
Big Mac price never catches up with dollar – Dallas Fed blog
Prices barely adjust to currency swings even after four years, economists find
Young people less likely to be hired in age of AI – BdF blog
Technology’s impact less pronounced among older workers, as French firms opt to retain senior staff
Softer expectations needed for AI-led growth – BIS paper
Large-scale automation could weaken profit incentive that drove technological progress, economist says
Credit shocks hit GDP harder in more equal countries – CNB study
Effects more severe in economies with lower income gaps, but redistribution can cushion blow
Oil futures gloomier than reality during conflicts – Feds note
Commodity has become hedge against macroeconomic risk, research finds
Monetary policy must be more agile during AI transition – study
Bank of Italy paper says inflationary developments offer more reliable guide than long-term r*
Stablecoins could let US firms prioritise some creditors – study
FDIC may be on hook if a bank issues coins before failing, Cleveland Fed researchers say
Political conflict triggers decline in investment – study
Bank of Spain paper examines impact of polarisation and gridlock on major economies
Investors price in sanctions risk for US equities – study
NY Fed authors say geoeconomic risk driven by firms’ exposure to sanctioned countries’ supply chains
Stablecoins issuers’ debt wish not enough to meet US needs – study
SF Fed authors say demand for Treasuries will be much smaller than government’s requirements
Firms are rejecting stablecoins – Cleveland Fed study
Local businesses express scepticism about technology, with one saying ‘just pay me in US dollars’
US firms are actively divesting from China – Fed note
Businesses have been shrinking Chinese holdings since 2020, research suggests
AI not having major impact on US graduate jobs – study
NBER researchers say changes in employment market are not statistically significant
Rising defence spending could boost European growth – ECB
But macroeconomic benefits depend on cutting personnel costs and imports