Research
Decentralised money always fragments – BIS’s Shin
Paper shows blockchain-based finance cannot replicate network effects of central bank money
R* has increased globally since pandemic – NY Fed research
Higher neutral rates show government bonds might not be as liquid and safe as before, economists say
Delayed hikes lessened inflation’s distributional effects – study
Poorer households would have suffered more if ECB began tightening straight after pandemic
Monetary dominance depends on comparative advantage – paper
Money that is ‘too good’ as a store of value may not circulate, authors say
Policy normalisation may cause economic contraction – BoJ study
Effects greater under less credible forward guidance, central bank researchers find
US firms dominate entire AI supply chains – BIS bulletin
Tech giants operate across all layers, including designing chips and running clouds, study says
Lower reserves share not a sign of dollar’s decline – paper
Growth of FX coffers in countries holding fewer greenbacks dilutes currency’s share, NBER study finds
Shipping congestion drives up inflation – IMF paper
Study of tracking data shows delays at ports are reflected in headline inflation
Fed paper touts prediction market data for monetary policy
Sites like Kalshi could become “new benchmark” for measuring expectations, researchers say
Dallas Fed researcher cautions against expansionary policy
Study of US in the 1970s says oil shocks were not primary driver of inflation
Emerging economies likely to lag advanced in AI-led growth – study
BIS report highlights divergence in technology’s impact on jobs and countries’ ability to adapt
Net zero transition could boost productivity – BoE paper
Impact of carbon tax depends partly on spillovers from green technology, economists say
Basel Committee warns of rollover risks in SRT markets
Investors’ appetite for synthetic risk transfers could lessen during downturns, organisation says
Central banks develop GenAI tool for inflation nowcasting
Researchers say method has global applicability
Banks’ internal markets impact wider funding conditions – paper
Repos from affiliates play key role in channelling liquidity to financial system, authors find
Study calls for twin-pronged macro-pru approach to shocks
Higher capital and CCyB are both needed to mitigate threats to stability, say Bank of Italy authors
Models need rethink due to effect of global shocks – paper
Central banks can no longer assume shocks are ‘temporary, linear and symmetric’, authors say
Lenders use strict covenants to hedge against rate hikes – study
US banks exposed to policy volatility use breaches to cut lending in tightening cycles, authors say
BIS paper models fiscal influence on monetary policy
Researchers propose alternative mechanism to fiscal theory of the price level
Eurozone banks unexpectedly tightened lending – ECB survey
Respondents suggest tariffs were partly to blame for reduction in available credit for businesses
‘Pricing cascades’ crucial to post-Covid inflation – study
ECB researchers say speed and interdependencies were key components to shock