United States
Trade tensions set to harm long-term US growth – IMF paper
Output would decline even if China voluntarily limits its exports to the US
Strong labour market complicates Fed outlook
Non-farm payrolls stronger than expected, focusing extra attention on Jerome Powell’s testimony this week
Loose financial conditions predict output gap – NY Fed paper
Policy-makers can make significant welfare gains by greater focus on financial conditions – researchers
Next IMF chief could be non-European
Carney and Carstens among possible candidates as institution seeks successor to Lagarde
US bank supervisor creates new division for largest banks
New FDIC division offers simplified structure that fosters greater collaboration, chairman says
Higher US capital buffers leave firms’ debt unchanged – Fed paper
Individual banks cut lending due to higher capital buffers but firms find other lenders, researchers say
Trump nominates two candidates for Fed board
Judy Shelton and St Louis Fed’s Christopher Waller will now face Senate confirmation hearing
Doves vs hawks: IMF advice on unconventional monetary policy
Funds’ advice on innovative measures has not always “stood the test of time”, writes Philip Turner
Large US banks pass Fed’s second round of stress tests
Fed approves capital plans of 17 of the largest banks, which now can increase dividend payments and share buybacks
US bank competition weaker than thought – St Louis Fed paper
Measuring off-balance sheet actives shows some banks have 10% more pricing power, says researcher
Could the Fed cut short its balance sheet plans?
Fed watchers weigh in on possible balance sheet moves in July meeting
Senior Fed officials weigh in on potential rate cut
Bullard, Brainard, Clarida and Kashkari highlight strengthened case for cuts, while Kaplan warns on financial stability implications
US banks pass first round of stress tests
Deutsche Bank fares well despite last year’s failure and recent bad bank plans
Central banks cannot fight a populist Tweet storm – panel
Populist leaders such as Donald Trump comfortably outgun central banks on social media; total approach to communications needed
Fed eases regulatory burden for small US banks
Rule change introduces streamlined reports for banks with assets of $1 billion to $5 billion
Fed opens door to future rate cut
Policy-makers adopt dovish tone, but choose not to cut yet
Regulators prepare response to Facebook’s Libra
Plans under way for G7 working group, as crypto asset plans draw criticism in Europe and US
Construction trends can predict yield curve inversions – St Louis Fed
Housebuilding expectations should be considered when forecasting economic activity, researchers say
Fischer warns Trump could sabotage Fed crisis response
Fed independence under “unprecedented” threat and second Trump term would harm US – Fischer
Draghi becomes latest target of Trump’s ire
Dovish comments at ECB conference draw accusation of manipulation from US president
NY Fed researchers develop new natural rate of unemployment measure
Estimate is 50–60 basis points lower than other mainstream estimates
Martin Feldstein, 1939–2019
The US economist was hugely influential in shaping both policy and economic research
Fed pushes big banks to tally CVA for central counterparties
Banks told to quantify exposure to CCPs for annual stress tests
Fed banks collaborate on economic education
“We have a ‘power-in-numbers’ approach,” says officer at the San Francisco Fed