United States
UK mobile payments growth continues as Vocalink eyes overseas projects
Report identifies factors that may be holding back growth in mobile payments in the UK; Vocalink ‘hoping to be involved’ in US work on faster payments
US unemployment falls to 5.1% despite drop in jobs growth
Richmond Fed president describes it as a ‘right-down-the-middle-of-the-fairway’ unemployment report, as he spells out why the time is right to begin raising interest rates
Safe as houses: designing a more stable mortgage
A conference at the New York Fed earlier this year looked at some innovative mortgage designs that could boost financial stability. Central Banking approached some of the speakers to learn more
Case for higher inflation targets takes a knock at Jackson Hole
Thomas Jordan warns higher inflation ‘likely to be associated with considerable costs’ in longer run; academics see little benefit in the Federal Reserve targeting 4%
Economics needs a ‘replication journal’, paper argues
Natural and life scientists spend considerable time attempting to replicate the results of earlier research; economics could benefit from a similar approach, St Louis Fed paper argues
Fischer watched for rate views as Jackson Hole concludes
Symposium at Kansas City Fed closes with panel discussion featuring Carney, Constâncio, Fischer and Rajan on Saturday; one early session considers ‘international price system’
Household debt had modest impact on US consumption, research finds
Household debt in the US accounted only slightly for the decline in household consumption nationally in the 2000s, research published by ECB finds
IMF paper explores capital inflows and credit growth
Working paper finds an increase in capital inflows can fuel credit growth, but it depends on their composition; no ‘significant’ connection with foreign direct investment
People: Chicago appoints first vice-president, Ukraine adds deputy to deposit fund
Chicago Fed announces Ellen Bromagen as first vice-president and COO; changes at Ukraine’s deposit guarantee fund result in appointment of new deputy managing director; and more
Lockhart still expects rate hike this year
Atlanta Fed president still expects Fed to start tightening ‘sometime’ this year but market expectations of a September hike have fallen
Iranian central bank should not recover assets, US government argues
The department of justice has argued in a submission to the Supreme Court that Iran’s central bank should not recover $1.75 billion in assets awarded to the families of terrorism victims
FOMC inching towards rate hike, minutes hint
Minutes of July meeting show some members are still concerned that labour market and inflation data are not strong enough for a hike, but several think the economy is nearly ready
FOMC forecasts perform better in short- than long-term, Fed paper finds
Forecasts prepared ahead of FOMC meetings from 1997-2008 considerably outperform benchmarks at short horizons, but the results are much more mixed in the longer term
Dallas Fed picks former Goldman banker to replace Fisher
Robert Kaplan to take over as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, bringing experience in academia and as a senior executive at Goldman Sachs
New York Fed researchers shine light on process of giving policy advice
Economists including head of research explain the process of briefing William Dudley ahead of FOMC meetings
End of sanctions could be double-edged sword for Iranian banks
Iran central bank vice-governor warns domestic banks have work to do before they are opened up to international competition, but Iranian investors see end of sanctions as broadly positive
US rate hike still a possibility after ‘solid’ jobs data
Federal Reserve still on track to hike rates later this year, possibly as soon as September, after latest jobs data shows 215,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls
Insurers call for clarity on US agency risk weightings
Capital treatment under Solvency II unclear, say securitisation specialists and insurers
Norges Bank paper outlines forecasting method for big data
Researchers aim to forecast US stock market and economy using a Bayesian non-parametric model, with a dataset large enough that computing power becomes a problem
Fresh delay will push EU-US CCP row into September
Decision had been expected in July; dealers sceptical new timeline will hold
Fed’s Powell weighs factors behind market-making evolution
Governor notes regulation is a contributing factor but not a dominant one, explaining the evolution of market-making; technology and participant behaviour both important
Fed communication driving Trinidad and Tobago policy
Trinidad and Tobago MPC cites Fed guidance on interest rates as the ‘most influential factor’ in its decision to tighten monetary policy
Bundesbank research tracks changing financial cycle
Discussion paper seeks to establish the ‘empirical regularities’ of the financial cycle using an econometric model, finding the cycle has grown longer and more severe over time
BoJ paper finds emerging markets struggled to protect themselves from QE
Foreign exchange interventions and capital flow policies did little to shield emerging markets from the spillovers caused by quantitative easing in the US