Macroeconomics
‘Goldilocks economy’ implies bears may not be far away – Menon
Despite reasons for optimism, “three grumpy bears” may soon return, says MAS chief
Dudley warns Trump tax plan leaves US finances ‘unsustainable’
New York Fed chief says policymakers may have to tighten rates harder to offset stimulus
BIS paper explores effects of global factors on inflation
Authors find impact of global factors is mainly temporary, but the effects appear more significant for countries without long-established inflation targets
Macroeconomics suffers from blind spot, says Borio
Misallocated resources can explain a large part of recent productivity slowdowns, but thinking in aggregate terms obscures this, says BIS economist
BIS paper asks what makes emerging market banks profitable
Both bank-specific and economy-wide factors affect banks’ profitability, authors find
Fed paper studies inequality in three dimensions
Authors find examining three dimensions simultaneously gives new insights
Economists are misinterpreting ‘Triffin dilemma’, says BIS paper
Michael Bordo and Robert McCauley argue there was nothing certain about the collapse of Bretton Woods, but Triffin’s successful prediction led others to mistakenly reapply his theory
Early asset purchases much more successful – BIS paper
Authors find effectiveness falls over time as the shock wears off, questioning the value of long-running quantitative easing
India needs radical reforms, says academic
State ownership has gone too far but the state needs stronger capabilities in other areas, argues Vijay Joshi
More work needed on supply channel of finance – BIS paper
Demand-side links between the financial and real sectors are better understood, say authors
Low productivity might not be weighing on real rates – research
Long-run correlations imply there is little reason to believe low productivity is associated with low rates, Cleveland Fed economist finds
Venezuelan crisis deepens; rating agencies declare default
Russia agrees to restructure $3.15 billion to facilitate repayments to creditors
BIS paper studies how weak banks beget zombie firms
Weak banks have a tendency to misallocate capital, authors find, though the effect is only important in the long run, in contrast to earlier studies
AI adoption lag could explain productivity shortfall – research
Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock and Chad Syverson argue the productivity slowdown is not as surprising as it may seem, and there are reasons to be hopeful
Korea suffering from ‘missing inflation’ – deputy governor
Core inflation is still in the mid-1% range despite economic improvement
Market structure affects monetary neutrality – paper
Minneapolis Fed research finds oligopoly undermines the neutrality of money, amplifying the real impact of monetary shocks
Xi faces macroeconomic dilemma after China’s party congress
The Chinese premier will have to work hard to avoid a 'Minsky moment', says Hui Feng
Low inflation partly down to luck – CEPR report
David Miles and co-authors argue advanced economies’ luck on inflation could run out; recommend central banks prepare
BoE paper studies interest rates across eight centuries
In July 2016, the global risk-free rate hit its lowest level since at least 1273, according to a new extra-long-term dataset
Interview: Edward Prescott
The Nobel Prize-winner speaks to Daniel Hinge about time inconsistency and real business cycle theory, and explains why there is no ‘productivity puzzle’
Communication technology helps explain productivity puzzle – Fed paper
Properly accounting for ICT services produces “very large” boost to US labour productivity figures, authors say
SBP notes caveats to decade-high growth
Expansion of Pakistan’s economy continued in fiscal 2017, although the central bank is concerned about a widening current account deficit
OECD urges UK to maintain ‘close ties’ with EU
Latest assessment of UK economy warns of damaging impact of Brexit vote; Ángel Gurría says close future relationship “absolutely key”
Blanchard and Summers call for rethink of stabilisation policy
Both economists question consensus on fiscal prudence and advocate stricter financial regulation