Macroeconomics
Bank of Canada paper studies capital control motivations
Researcher designs policy rule to study whether capital controls are imposed with “mercantilist” or “macro-prudential” motivations
IMF: global recovery is broad but incomplete
Fund ups its growth forecasts but says many are missing out; Maurice Obstfeld urges policymakers to take action while “times are good”
Neural network can beat conventional forecasts – Kansas City Fed research
Deep learning model outperforms Survey of Professional Forecasters at all horizons
Fed paper calls for rethink of conditions for setting capital controls
Policymakers should also consider how external shocks affect the borrowing capacity of the country, researchers say
Big banks’ share prices more sensitive to rate moves – paper
Lower capital ratios diminish exposure to changes in the yield curve, says research
Opaque money markets work well, Nobel laureate says
Bengt Holmström says policymakers should not try to make money markets more transparent
National Bank of Denmark sees "major challenges" for Greenland’s economy
Greenland is experiencing an economic boom, but needs to diversify its economy; central bank warns political independence may be a mistake
Goodhart and Pradhan: demographics will reverse ‘multi-decade’ trends
Ageing population is likely to put upward pressure on real interest rates and inflation, and push down inequality, economists say
UK economy vulnerable to consumption-led recession
Fragile consumer spending could take a toll on growth, former BoE officials warn, leaving the central bank with a tough job ahead
Flexible working may shift Nairu, ECB’s Mersch warns
Technology may increase insecurity and weaken collective bargaining, says senior ECB figure
BoE’s Broadbent: globalisation has been largely a good thing
Bank of England deputy says flexible labour market has helped dull the pain of adjustment to trade shocks, while lower prices have most benefited the poorest groups
Yellen warns of debt impact on productivity
Fed chair states in “strongest possible terms” that the current spending by the US government is unsustainable and could harm productivity
CEPR paper sketches ‘radical, realistic’ Greek reform plan
Stanford and Yale economists outline “unorthodox” policies that could put Greek debt on a sustainable footing – and might be acceptable to all negotiating parties
Pass-through varies across countries and time – BoE paper
Kristin Forbes and co-authors study the shocks and structural factors that help explain variations in the exchange rate’s impact on inflation
Household balance sheet adjustment a long process – Danish study
Research into patterns of consumption and saving before and after the 2008 crisis shows deleveraging can take a long time; consumption impact of rate hike is “modest”
New Keynesian DGSE models need financial spillover channels – ECB paper
Models without powerful financial spillover channels will be “misleading”- researchers
Survey data can help with modelling expectations – BoJ paper
Discussion paper outlines method of incorporating survey data as a proxy for expectations, with “promising” results for inflation modelling in the US and Japan
No ‘Taylor rule’ without Meltzer’s support
John Taylor says he would “likely have done other things” if not encouraged by Allan Meltzer to develop the eponymous rule
Greek bailout funds approved but debt relief still contentious
IMF agrees “in principle” to new support for Greece, unlocking European funds, but parties still fail to reach accord on debt relief
Norges Bank sees room for improvement when forecasting wages
Evaluation of forecast performance shows both the central bank and other forecasters struggled to produce accurate estimates of wage growth and unemployment
Irish central bank renews Brexit warnings
Rapid house price rise fuelled by scarcity, Central Bank of Ireland says
Term premiums matter for inflation – BoJ paper
Term premiums domestically and abroad appear to affect inflation via the exchange rate channel, authors find
UK election roundup: all eyes on Brexit negotiations
Economists react as UK vote delivers a hung parliament, casting doubt on the way forward with Brexit negotiations and causing a drop in the pound
Obstfeld and Taylor back dual trilemma global finance theory
Economists still need to better incorporate financial stability into their thinking, the authors argue, with the concept of a financial trilemma helping to explain recent instability