Central Banks
How does Janet Yellen fit into Trump’s new order?
Academics and former Fed officials think Yellen is safe for now, though the gap she could leave when her term comes to an end has some worried
Credit scoring improves borrower selection, Bank of Italy paper says
Paper presents a database on loans and the use of credit-scoring models; banks’ use of credit scoring reduces the likelihood of borrower defaulting, researchers say
RBNZ delivers rate cut as exchange rate strength persists
Board reaffirmed move in light of Trump victory, but cut has been in the offing for some time as NZ dollar strength holds down inflation
Ignazio Visco on Italian banks and why the ECB should not be made a ‘scapegoat’ for EMU fatigue
The Bank of Italy governor speaks to Chris Jeffery about resolving Italy’s NPLs, Europe’s bail-in framework, the importance of QE and why the ECB needs to stop being made a ‘scapegoat’ for EMU fatigue
National Asset-Liability Management Africa 2016 | Wellington Management | William J. Hannigan
William Hannigan on the challenges facing central banks investing in government bonds, and the current low-yield environment
Visco hits out at lack of ‘cohesion’ among Europe’s political leaders
ECB governing council member calls for targeted structural reforms in the euro area; says a euro area finance minister must have fiscal capability and not be “another referee”
Praet calls for further consolidation of eurozone banking
The ECB's chief economist says falling bank profits are not a concern for monetary policy and sector must improve business models while the central bank gives “regulatory clarity”
RBA paper finds it is hard to pinpoint US productivity slowdowns
Break in productivity growth trend in US appears to have happened in early 1970s, although beliefs took three decades to fully adjust, authors find
Riksbank’s Flodén warns QE dividends may not continue
Quantitative easing has generated profits so far, but the central bank is likely to incur losses in future, deputy governor warns; purchases amount to maturity transformation and therefore carry risk
Sarb offers insight into its macro-prudential toolkit
Central bank begins to outline macro-prudential tools needed to enforce financial stability mandate, seeking comment on appropriate instruments
EBA suggests new model for prudential regulation of investment firms
Capital model should be based on firms’ risks to markets and to customers, EBA says
India scraps two banknotes overnight
The joint initiative by the central bank and government will replace two highest denominations with a new Rs500 and Rs2000, entering circulation tomorrow after an unscheduled bank holiday
People: BIS replaces Debelle as chair of markets committee; UK advertises for Shafik replacement
MAS’s Jacqueline Loh will chair the markets committee at the Bank for International Settlements; Bank of England advertises for deputy governor role
The data deluge
Big data can help economists overcome weak theories and improve our knowledge, but it also comes with with larger pitfalls
Central banks respond as markets roiled by Trump victory
Mexico hit by large capital outflows, while Swiss and Japanese central banks face large inflows; Federal Reserve likely to come under pressure
Trump attacks Yellen in campaign ad as US votes for president
Candidate has repeatedly attacked Fed chair for “political” actions
Dallas Fed research seeks to improve real-time inflation forecasts
Economists break surveys of inflation expectations down into parts, finding stripping out the noise component improves forecasting
RBNZ’s Spencer sees need for better approach to FMI oversight
The framework, if put into legislation, would give the central bank and markets authority new powers of information-gathering and oversight
People: Sarb reappoints deputy for second term; Central Bank of Kenya looking to replace board
South African Reserve Bank appoints Francois Groepe to serve another term; parliament has approved five new members to the Central Bank of Kenya board, but formal process not yet complete; and more
Harnessing growing data volumes: The St Louis Fed
Huge demand for macroeconomic data that is easily accessible, international and granular is driving the rise of this global data hub. Daniel Hinge meets the Fred team
SNB paper models ‘sticky consumption’ in Switzerland
Assuming consumption habits are slow to change helps produce more robust results than other methods, author finds