Central Banks
Chance of US recession lower, but still high – NY Fed study
Authors say model puts chances at 75%, compared with 83% at beginning of 2024
People: April to June 2025
A round-up of central bankers in the news and on the move during the past three months
Jobs, not prices, are main reason for dissent on FOMC – study
Votes show unemployment in presidents’ districts is of greater concern to them than inflation
Palestine launches zero interest-rate loan scheme
Monetary authority announces $10m of support for small businesses in Gaza and West Bank
Trump’s trade policy a ‘wildcard’, says Bostic
Atlanta Fed president says tariffs picture is “unsettled” and calls for patience on monetary policy
BoK paper links real interest rate to demographic shift
Higher life expectancy and lower birth rate exert downward pressure on rates, researchers find
SNB paper shows 5–6% boost in inflation forecasting
Hedged random forest method “consistently outperforms” unhedged approach
Bank notes: April to June 2025
A round-up of news and salient issues that have affected central bankers in the past three months
Budget and RTGS operating expenses rise year on year
Share of central banks charging both fixed and varied fees for RTGS access grows
High profits to cushion against bank losses – Danish central bank
Lenders in good position to deal with tariff turmoil, says National Bank of Denmark
Trade trends favoured China over US even before tariffs – study
St Louis Fed research shows long-term re-anchoring of countries’ trade links between 2002 and 2022
Lawsuits looming against ECB’s climate policy, expert says
Banks could go to court over imposition of daily fines related to environmental prudential rules
Most central banks operate RTGS seven to 12 hours daily
Respondents processed over $6 trillion via system in 2024
Hungarian central bank launches anti-cyber fraud campaign
Governor announces five-step campaign to counteract increasing prevalence of scams
A fractured monetary system
US policy is encouraging a transition away from a dollar-led, rules-based order
Obituary: Stanley Fischer, 1943–2025
Fischer had a profound impact on central banking, as path-breaking academic and top policy-maker
Sweden moves to improve liquidity provision in resolution
Riksbank and debt office develop “joint approach” to clarify how lenders can source liquidity in crisis
BoJ advised to slow or maintain JGB tapering pace from 2026
Bond traders satisfied with current plan but disagree on future balance sheet policy
Number of non-banks with RTGS access rises year on year
Middle income central banks account for largest number of connections
Reflections on the international financial situation
Former IMF head Jacques de Larosière writes that markets are blind to Trump's policy shocks that are fragmenting the monetary ‘system’, causing strain in the eurozone and may result in stagflation
NBP’s Juliusz Jabłecki on geopolitics, bitcoin and gold
Director of financial risk management department talks tactics versus strategy, operations following the outbreak of war in neighbouring Ukraine, FX interventions and independent risk-taking
Supreme Court ruling raises storm clouds for Fed
Decision to allow dismissal of agency staff without cause poses risks to bank’s independence, say experts
Croatia and Montenegro to begin cash swap programme
Central banks sign MoU to exchange damaged euro notes from Montenegro for undamaged ones from Croatia
BoE governor calls for closer ties between UK and EU
Bailey says Brexit’s negative effects on trade need to be minimised