Economics
Podcast: David Vines on how to reform the DSGE model
Oxford University’s David Vines believes the New Keynesian DSGE model is salvageable – but needs some serious work
Protectionism triggers ‘rising level of concern’ in US – Powell
Fed chair thinks it is difficult to predict the effect of trade barriers on the economy
Weak US productivity behind low wage growth – IMF
Declining labour share of income is another contributing factor
ECB needed better data in 2008 crisis, says Lautenschläger
Money market data was “limited” and published too infrequently, says senior ECB official
GDP growth only raises profits for some banks – Bank of Italy paper
Banks with large loan portfolios benefit from GDP growth – researchers
BoE’s latest big data project targets labour mismatches
Eliminating regional mismatch could have prevented productivity shortfall, researchers find
Fed paper builds dynamic factor model for nowcasting
Model produces “reasonably good” estimates of Ecuadorian GDP and outperforms other models
Data prompts positivity from Carney
Economic slowdown in Q1 was not due to the economic climate, BoE governor says
ECB’s QE has dampened volatility in Eastern Europe – BoI paper
End to ECB asset purchases might increase volatility in EU-6, researchers say
ECB warns EU may be making wrong assumptions on ageing
Eurostat projections more favourable than those of other agencies – ECB bulletin
NY Fed paper: ‘replacement hiring’ affects productivity wage gap
Replacement hiring can explain much of the gap between wages and productivity, authors say
UAE plugs in to IMF’s enhanced data standards
IMF’s chief statistician hails the move as an “important step forward”
Eurozone governments’ post-crisis fiscal policies were ‘self-defeating’
Policies ended up being contractionary, IMF-organised conference hears
Money matters for macro fluctuations – Fed paper
Working paper says previous research by Schularick and Taylor may have been flawed
Issuing “foreign-law” debt can cut costs in times of crisis – ECB paper
Eurozone countries’ bonds issued abroad showed major premiums during debt crisis – researchers
Leading governors analyse evolving inflation-employment relationship
Powell, Draghi, Lowe and Kuroda assess causes keeping wage growth low across the world
Spain’s GDP growth set to decelerate – central bank
Waning monetary policy impact, higher oil prices and lower regional expansion behind deceleration
IMF forecasts lower US growth than Fed, Congress and White House
Stimulus expected to yield higher growth in the short term, but the benefits are likely to fade away from 2020
Woodford shows finite horizons matter when modelling
Removing rational expectations can change key economic results, says Michael Woodford
Central bankers share vision for ‘business as usual’ big data
Panellists offer advice on how to build the infrastructure for good data governance
QE boosts bond prices above ‘fundamental’ level, Banque de France paper finds
Paper uses experimental techniques to simulate QE’s effects on bond markets
Andy Haldane rethinks traditional growth narrative
New research implies growth did not “flatline” before the industrial revolution
BoE paper models bank runs in general equilibrium
Daisuke Ikeda finds regulations must be comprehensive to prevent risk shifting