Steeper Phillips curve cannot fully explain inflation surge – IMF paper

Structural factors have led to some steepening but it is not the full story, authors say


Deglobalisation and rising digitalisation have contributed to a steeper Phillips curve in some countries, but this cannot fully explain high inflation, research published by the International Monetary Fund finds.

Anil Ari, Daniel Garcia-Macia and Shruti Mishra test how these two structural factors interact with the Phillips curve in 24 advanced economies in Europe. The curve, which relates inflation to unemployment, was widely observed flattening in the years before the Covid-19 pandemic.


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