Economics
Banknotes: January to March 2023
A round-up of news and salient issues that have affected central bankers in the past three months
Edmund Phelps and the search for a ‘new economy’
The Nobel Prize winner helped lay the foundations of modern macroeconomics. Now he is concerned something is deeply wrong with how policy-makers think about the economy
BIS paper lays out ‘two-regime’ model of inflation
Framework could help central banks recognise and respond to bouts of higher inflation
Sarb deputy warns on growth prospects
Cassim says economy is “remarkable for the wrong reasons”
Layoffs higher in US tech industry – St Louis Fed
Data shows layoffs in “information industry” were up over 65% compared with April 2022
Blanchard and Summers say higher inflation likely to persist
Veteran economists say structural factors are likely to push up neutral rate and inflation
China sets modest growth target ahead of leadership reshuffle
Outgoing premier Li calls for accommodative policy and warns of property sector risks
What is happening to US wages?
Economists disagree over causes of real wage stagnation
Book notes: The next age of uncertainty, by Stephen Poloz
This book provides a well-informed and well-argued view about our economic future
Book notes: A guide to good money, by Brendan Brown and Robert Pringle
The authors make some good points even if one does not agree with this full-bodied attack on Keynesian economics and inflation targeting
Agent-based models shed light on CBDC dynamics
Take-up could be as high as 25% of total money, but depends on design choices, IMF research finds
BoE’s Mann challenges idea of ‘long and variable lags’
MPC member says changing transmission of policy in UK may demand more tightening
Macro-pru tightening can cause ‘risk leakages’, ECB paper finds
Policy-makers should tighten household limits early in the credit cycle, researchers say
Economics Benchmarks 2022 – presentation
Economics specialist Daniel Hinge discusses year-on-year trends, forecasting choices and research
It is time to rethink the balance of monetary and fiscal policy
Jagjit Chadha says the current moment calls for more subtle policy engineering than in past bouts of high inflation
Bank of Canada paper tests ‘inflation tax’ in lab experiment
Experimental design could be used to test other aspects of monetary policy, researchers say
Spain’s De Cos calls for greater ambition in EU fiscal reforms
Redesign of fiscal rules must be supported by wider reform of financial governance, governor says
Dallas Fed research casts doubt on ‘soft landing’
US Fed chair Jerome Powell sees US worker shortages as “more structural than cyclical”
China needs reforms to maintain robust growth, IMF warns
Fund urges Chinese policy-makers to tackle productivity slowdown and financial risks
Pandemic fiscal support had rapid inflationary impact – NBER paper
Inflationary impact of support to consumers was “quick to ensue, but moderate”, authors find
Text analysis of news spots Chinese financial risk, says paper
Researchers’ model uses machine learning to assess thousands of newspaper articles
IMF says global economy may be at ‘turning point’
China and India expected to drive half of global growth this year, but other economies are lagging
Wanted: radical ideas for inflation modelling
Hedge funds echo Mervyn King’s calls for a new approach to inflation modelling post-2022 crisis