Economics
The Netherlands Bank overhauls nowcasting model
Economic dynamics have become more complicated since the pandemic, economists say
Cloud and AI ‘dramatically improving’ data use at BoE
UK central bank creates cloud-based platform to streamline processing of its 30,000 data series
High Russian growth ‘extremely unlikely’ – Bank of Finland study
Reports shows labour shortages, capacity constraints are beginning to bite
US auto loan delinquencies focused in new lending – study
Lower credit standards and higher payments, not interest rates, are key contributing factors
Shared EU debt not ‘essential’ for competitiveness boost – Draghi
Former ECB chief also says his proposal for €750bn of extra annual investment is “conservative”
Machine learning can improve inflation forecasts – IMF paper
Model for Japan is “easily interpretable” and overcomes some drawbacks of standard models
NBER paper seeks ‘canonical Hank model’
Early attempts at heterogeneous agent modelling led to implausible results, authors say
FDI more important than trade in boosting Chinese lending – paper
Banks' activities in emerging economies increase in line with direct investment, say researchers
IMF review of Russia’s economy ‘postponed indefinitely’
Regular Article IV consultation cancelled after international pressure
Book notes: The monetarists: the making of the Chicago monetary tradition, 1927-1960, by George S Tavlas
A fascinating, scholarly and sympathetic account of the Chicago monetary tradition
Rise in UK services inflation curbs bets on BoE rate cut
CPI flat overall, but economists say uptick in core and services numbers likely to make policy-makers pause
NBER paper reviews ‘state of the art’ climate modelling
Recent breakthroughs have increased accuracy and computational efficiency of IAMs
BoT governor calls for new growth model for Thailand
Sethaput advocates stronger focus on local development and quality of life
Central banks should examine demographics – Finnish governor
Rehn says sharp decrease in hours worked and increased immigration may not continue
House prices react rapidly to rates shocks – BIS paper
Monetary policy transmission stronger in US property market than previously thought, study argues
Cash use supporting ‘shadow economy’ in Slovakia – study
Central bank research points to “substantial” activity intended to avoid regulatory scrutiny
Phasing out coal-fired power could ultimately pay for itself – BdF paper
Authors say gains from lower operating and finance costs could compensate for outlay costs
Households biased in views of purchasing power – BdF deputy
Bénassy-Quéré says too much emphasis placed on food and energy prices’ effects on inflation
China poses ‘risk of economic coercion’ – Belgian paper
National Bank of Belgium says trade with EU has shifted to more “strategic” goods
Draghi report calls for step change in EU investment
Former ECB chief says bloc should revive securitisation and finish capital markets union to stay competitive
Former PBoC head urges efforts to fight deflationary pressure
Yi Gang highlights weak domestic demand and need for fiscal and monetary support
Hungary has been ‘off course’ since 2021 – MNB governor
Matolcsy tears into government’s economic policy
Phillips curve differs depending on labour market – Fed study
Research finds curve to be flat in normal markets and steep in tight ones