Economics
US CPI inflation falls modestly
New York Fed reports “steep declines” in inflation expectations, but core CPI ticks up
IMF paper offers ‘fear-based theory’ of economy
Central banks risk distorting the economy if they don’t move interest rates to offset “fear cycle”
Central banks will be ‘tested’ by long-term inflation – BIS’s Borio
Persistent inflationary forces could bring central banks into conflict with government, official says
RBA’s Lowe admits inflation models need rethink
Governor acknowledges forecasting mistakes but rejects calls to resign
Joseph Stiglitz on the challenge of fixing macroeconomics
The Nobel Prize-winning economist discusses the flaws in mainstream models and how to repair them, whether central banks went wrong in 2021, and what to do – or not to do – about inflation
Eurozone repo markets are slowing policy transmission, ECB paper says
Dealer banks use market power to get better prices from other institutions
IMF signs off on $1.3bn package for Zambia
Executive board urges Bank of Zambia to rebuild reserves and tackle bad debts
ECB’s Lane and Schnabel strike different notes on eurozone inflation
Schnabel says “right tail” shift could herald de-anchoring, but Lane says other outcomes are possible
Supply-side pressures likely to persist – Carstens
Policy-makers “need to be realistic” about the feasibility of demand management, BIS chief says
US household debt rising across the board
Delinquencies for subprime loans are approaching their pre-pandemic proportion
ADB provides $100 million in emergency loans to Mongolia
Funds will be used to expand government support for vulnerable households
How to run a world-class economics department
Benchmarking data shows central banks have myriad ways of organising their economists. So how do some of the world’s top research organisations do it?
Book notes: The money minders, by Jagjit S Chadha
This book acts as an invaluable primer on money-credit-fiscal theory and practice
Joseph Stiglitz calls for rethink of macroeconomics
DGSE models have “nothing to say” about economic effects of Covid-19 measures, Nobel winner says
Decision theory can guide climate modelling, Nobel laureate says
Lars Peter Hansen argues policy-makers need to pay more attention to uncertainty
Glapiński accuses Germany of wanting to redraw land borders
Polish governor warns on plans for EU super-state as German foreign office calls claims “absurd”
Covid hits women in US workforce – Bowman
Fed governor confident about greater employment opportunities for women, despite inflation headwinds
RBA sets up new panel of private-sector economists
Expert panel will meet at least twice a year; move follows “embarrassing” forecasting issues
Netherlands not facing wage-price spiral – DNB
Central bank says there is space to increase negotiated wages in the Dutch economy
Housing affordability dropping across the US
Fed’s large rate hikes and constrained housing supply create tough market for buyers
Long-term data can shed light on current inflation – NBER paper
Authors suggest first half of 20th century has clearer parallel to current inflation than 1970s
Central banks should ‘overestimate’ inflation persistence, says economist
Academic argues central banks should act as if exogenous shocks are likely to be persistent
RBI’s Patra envisages India as ‘economic superpower’
India has chance to achieve “escape velocity” from emerging market status, deputy says
Firms use supply chains to predict inflation – IMF paper
Authors find expectation formation diverges from rational expectations hypothesis