Trade
Trade trends favoured China over US even before tariffs – study
St Louis Fed research shows long-term re-anchoring of countries’ trade links between 2002 and 2022
A fractured monetary system
US policy is encouraging a transition away from a dollar-led, rules-based order
Reflections on the international financial situation
Former IMF head Jacques de Larosière writes that markets are blind to Trump's policy shocks that are fragmenting the monetary ‘system’, causing strain in the eurozone and may result in stagflation
BoE governor calls for closer ties between UK and EU
Bailey says Brexit’s negative effects on trade need to be minimised
Trends in reserve management 2025: survey results
Insights on strategies in anticipation of tariffs, interest rate divergence and geopolitical risk, FX diversification and de-dollarisation, as well as bitcoin in reserves, FX interventions and gold
Supply chains more normal than they seem – Richmond Fed study
Research says index compiled by New York Fed points to business as usual
Maurice Obstfeld on the trade war’s damage to the monetary system
The former IMF chief economist speaks about Trump’s chaotic economic policies, the erosion of Fed independence and dollar stability, difficult policy trade-offs for central banks, and the threat to the Bretton Woods institutions
ECB says tariff shocks ‘continue to reverberate’
Stability review says risk of slowdown has “increased markedly”, though banks are better placed than in 2008
Romania opts to hold, citing domestic and global uncertainty
Central bank cites fluctuating commodity prices, tariff risks and volatility resulting from national politics
Book notes: Smart money: how digital currencies will win the new Cold War, by Brunello Rosa with Casey Larsen
This alarmist book, although lacking nuance, provides a lucid account of how CBDCs could play a decisive role in geopolitical dominance
What drove the Taiwan dollar surge?
Foreign speculators, carry unwinds and central bank inaction fuelled the 10% move, not just life insurers, say traders
The cost of ‘US liberation’
Stephen Millard outlines NIESR’s latest analysis of the Trump tariffs, as risks tilt to the downside
Eurozone exports to US unlikely to rise in trade war – ECB study
US tariffs rerouted Chinese goods to eurozone, but exporters there failed to boost US presence
Experts divided over contraction in US economy
Ex-NY Fed chief says latest figures are an anomaly, though others point to Trump policies’ impact
Yen rates losses from tariff drama top $1 billion
Losses came from forced unwinds of bets on BoJ rate rises
EU firms fear dollar liquidity becoming tariff bargaining chip
Trade war escalation could affect ECB's access to Fed swap lines
Amid tariff turmoil, banks warned not to fudge IFRS 9 overlays
Flip-flopping US policies challenge loan loss provisioning models; EU regulators are watching closely
Bowman won’t commit to stress-testing tariff shock
Nominated Fed vice-chair stonewalls calls to run ad hoc scenario similar to 2020 Covid test
Fed’s Bowman to ‘prioritise’ SLR exemption for US Treasuries
Reinstating Covid-era relief is a ‘no brainer’, dealers say, as bond markets reel from tariff chaos
New Zealand makes rate cut in response to tariffs
RBNZ eases policy by 25bp and points to trade war’s downside risks to growth
Trade fragmentation could depress growth – BoE
Volatility has increased “significantly” though market functioning remains “orderly”, FPC says
‘Declaring war on the world economy’: economists react to Trump tariffs
Early estimates point to stagflation in US, as tariffs hit highest level since early 20th century
Do Trump/Doge materially threaten the Federal Reserve?
Experts weigh in on the danger levels for the US central bank, including whether it is overstaffed
Policy uncertainty ‘exceptionally high’ – de Guindos
Prudence needed as evaluating likely outcomes “no longer possible”, ECB vice-president says