Recession
Fed’s Evans and Bullard downplay recession risks
Both presidents looking to increase the policy rate to around 3.5% by the end of the year
BIS says central banks must act ‘decisively’ on inflation
Tightening policy hard and fast may be central banks’ best shot at engineering a soft landing
Fed finds major banks able to withstand ‘severe recession’
All banks pass stress test despite tougher scenario than in 2021
Fed meets inflation surge with 75bp hike
Unexpected spike in inflation and expectations spurs committee into rare policy aggression
Bernanke says Fed acted too slowly on inflation
Former Fed chair argues forward guidance hampered Fed’s response to rising prices
BoE raises rate to 1% as recession risks mount
Inflation expected to climb above 10% and GDP growth to drop to around zero
Fed makes first 50bp rate hike in decades
Central bank under pressure to curb inflation without crashing the economy
Bank of Russia continues unwinding giant rate hike
Central bank cuts rate 300 basis points to 14%, in second reduction this month
Andrew Bailey acknowledges risk of ‘over-tightening’
Senior economists discuss how to avoid stagflation during a fragile moment for the global economy
Fed triggers lift-off with 25bp hike
FOMC cuts economic growth projections for 2022 but proceeds with tightening
Covid-19, crypto and climate weigh on global economy – GFSR
Central banks face difficult “intertemporal trade-offs”; poorer nations unlikely to regain pre-Covid growth levels for “many, many years”, says IMF’s financial counsellor Tobias Adrian
Summers fears for Fed’s ability to remove ‘punchbowl’
Central banks may not be able to counter inflation threat amid possible return to 1960s economics, says former US Treasury secretary
Larry Summers on stagflation risks, lessons from Delphi and never-ending ‘punch’
The former US Treasury secretary speaks about fiscal ‘overexpansion’, Fed/Treasury debt discord, the pitfalls of ‘unknown unknowns’ and central bankers ‘unable’ to remove the ‘punchbowl’
Yellen warns of ‘catastrophic’ effects of not raising debt limit
Treasury secretary says failing to raise ceiling would be a “manufactured crisis”
NPLs down in nearly 70% of jurisdictions, despite Covid-19
Lower income nations hit harder than most during past five years; Asia, Africa and Americas NPLs on different trajectory to Europe
Bank of Zambia governor resigns
Mvunga leaves following change in presidents, amid high inflation
Some philosophical questions about the future of central banking
Kenneth Rogoff weighs up the many challenges facing central banks in the years ahead, from debt and inflation to negative rates and the dangers of ‘mission creep’
Seychelles central bank cuts policy rate by 100 basis points
Central bank considers weak economy more a concern than high inflation
BoE paper models impact of ‘active’ fiscal policy
Active fiscal policy complicates monetary policy but can generate higher welfare, author says
Kuwait dispute leaves SWF without managing director or full board
Fiscal battle between monarch and parliament keeps top positions at sovereign wealth fund vacant
Peru’s likely president-elect will reappoint Velarde
As opponent disputes his narrow win, Castillo affirms role of long-serving governor
UK household debt has not yet amplified Covid shock – BoE paper
But the share of households reporting financial difficulties is now rising, authors note
Angola grants central bank independence
Constitutional amendment will guarantee autonomy and add financial stability to mandate
Charles Goodhart on inflation targets, financial stability and the role of money
The LSE professor says inflation targets should have been 0%, the Fed’s move to AIT is a mistake, independence is under threat from inflation, big balance sheets support liquidity, AI can help supervisors and climate stress tests are unconvincing