Oil
Research maps Norwegian challenges if oil prices stay low
Economic commentary considers how the increase in oil prices over the past decade has affected Norway in a bid to understand how the recent price drop could play out
Norway’s oil fund suffers loss in second quarter
Losses of about $9 billion were largely driven by the fixed-income portfolio, although equities delivered a weak performance; NBIM takes a more activist stance
BoJ’s Nakaso highlights changing behaviour of firms
Firms are increasingly investing and facing tighter labour market conditions, with record profits and higher wages providing a boost to the economy, but inflation is still stuck low
IMF paper: commodity prices are largely demand-driven
Working paper explores systemic risk, aggregate demand and commodity prices, finding the latter to be largely demand-driven, a conclusion they extend to non-core inflation
Bank of Canada cuts rates to support ‘complex adjustment’
Central bank says economy needs additional support as it restructures in response to complex impact from oil price shock; fears remain over imbalances in household sector
Sama publishes first financial stability report
Report indicates Saudi financial system is coping well, despite the 2014 oil price shock and continued geopolitical instability in the region; past year saw ‘significant’ regulatory change
Central Bank of Nigeria excludes importers from FX markets
Latest bid to relieve pressure on the naira sees wide range of importers and those looking to invest in foreign currency bonds and equities banned from making foreign exchange transactions
BoE’s Weale warns MPC may have underestimated oil price impact
A failure to grasp the full importance of ‘tail events’ may have caused the monetary policy committee to underestimate the strength and duration of the oil shock’s impact on inflation, Weale says
RBNZ paper investigates changes to inflation expectations after oil price shocks
Research suggests changes in expectations following real oil price shocks have ‘little or nothing to do with actual inflation outcomes’
Norway’s oil fund boosted by market rally and weak krone
Fund returns 5.3% in the first quarter, a new record in krone terms, led by strong equity returns and weak currency; fund continues to use clout to encourage ethical decisions by firms
Azerbaijan to legislate central bank recapitalisation
Parliament prepares draft law to recapitalise Central Bank of Azerbaijan after foreign exchange losses leave balance sheet in the red
Bank of Canada sees 'front-loaded' oil price effects
Latest monetary policy report estimates Canadian economy was stagnant in first quarter as negative effects from lower oil prices hit earlier than expected; forecasts rebound in coming months
BoE’s FPC flags climate change financial stability risks
Financial policy committee divides issue into physical risks and transitional risks, seeing some potential for instability from climate change but calling for further research
Olsen: Norway needs lower labour costs
Norges Bank governor Øystein Olsen argues labour costs must be brought into line with those of Norway’s trading partners to support a rebalancing of the economy away from oil
Norges Bank faces ‘ripple effects’ from oil price collapse
Norway heading in opposite direction to generally favourable global trend, central bank’s annual report warns; banking sector profitable and resilient nonetheless
McCafferty: BoE is right to look through oil price decline
The sharp fall of oil prices will have a temporary impact on inflation, since ‘supply rather than demand has been the dominant factor’, says McCafferty
Colombian paper finds structure matters in modelling oil shocks
Working paper finds evidence that the impact of an oil price shock on an oil-exporting country such as Colombia can be large, but depends on the structure of the economy
Poland publishes forecasts behind ‘final’ rate cut
Economics Institute within central bank lowers forecast for inflation in 2015 to -0.5%, down from 1% in November; MPC says last week’s cut ‘concludes’ its easing cycle
Sarb deputy governor fears for oil-exporting countries
The positive and negative shocks of falling oil prices are ‘asymmetric’ and the impact on oil-exporting countries could ‘elevate’ global financial stability concerns, warns Groepe
Kazakh central bank expects to hit inflation target if oil averages $50 or $60
National Bank of Kazakhstan publishes two forecasts with different assumptions about oil price; plans to limit market volatility by expanding monetary instruments
Azerbaijan devalues currency by a third
Central bank follows up last week’s decision to abandon its peg in favour of a currency basket by devaluing the manat by 34% against the US dollar
Central Bank of Nigeria abandons FX window
Latest attempt to halt the sliding currency sees central bank cease to offer foreign exchange auctions, but interventions continue in the interbank market
Central Asian currencies under threat as Azerbaijan abandons peg
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan’s decision to drop its dollar peg and move to target a basket could have knock-on effects throughout the region, where currencies are already under pressure
Canadian economy may have more slack than headline figures suggest, says senior deputy
Bank of Canada's Carolyn Wilkins says measures of labour market slack show ‘greater unused capacity' than broader indicators