Oil
Tobacco prices ‘insufficient’ to offset food and energy, says Tonga central bank
Headline inflation in Tonga rose to -1.2% in December, but in its inflation report for November, the central bank warns price increases will likely remain low
Observers cast doubt on first Venezuelan inflation figures in a year
Central bank report puts annual inflation at 141% at end of September, after a year without publishing the data; some consider the figure to be too conservative
IMF cuts global growth forecast on back of EM challenges
Maurice Obstfeld says emerging markets and developing economies account for more than two-thirds of revisions; largest changes come in Brazil, where the MPC meets today
Volatility fails to shake outlook as BoE holds rates steady
Latest MPC minutes are largely preoccupied with discussion of international developments, but falling oil prices and market volatility do not herald major change in stance
Restructuring Norwegian economy will take time, Norges Bank says
The Norwegian economy is suffering amid further falls in oil prices, and rebalancing will take time, but central bank policy is doing its best to support the transition, report says
Changing commodity prices can ‘cushion’ other shocks, Colombian paper says
Colombian working paper suggests commodity price fluctuations do not always amplify business cycles in emerging markets
Oil prices are key drivers of metal prices, Colombian paper suggests
Research utilising ‘frequency-domain approach’ finds oil prices may be a key drivers of metal prices; consider implications for commodity-rich nations
NBIM records Q3 loss amid stock market volatility
Norges Bank Investment Management posts uncomfortable loss in third quarter, driven by sharp drop in its equity investments, but fund’s chief executive stresses long-term focus
FOMC minutes spell out inflation concerns
Several members were concerned disinflationary pressure from low oil prices and a strong dollar could persist longer than anticipated and ‘delay or diminish’ the expected rise in inflation
ECB watching oil and euro closely for inflation risks
Deflation has become less likely in the eurozone since the implementation of quantitative easing, but falling oil prices are pressing on inflation expectations, governing council says
Norway dips into oil fund for first time
Stimulus programme and low oil prices combine to push government deficit above oil revenues; NBIM opens regional office in Tokyo
Kuroda unfazed by ‘somewhat stagnant developments’
Japan’s economy has been through a summer lull but the BoJ chief insists it will bounce back, with inflation set to rise as expectations shift and low oil prices pass through
Global indicators can boost inflation forecasts in short term, paper finds
Author uses global inflation indicators and Brent oil price to augment domestic inflation forecasts in 523 countries, finding both improve accuracy
Gaza blockade adds to leap in Palestinian inflation
Low oil prices are not fully offsetting a fuel crisis in the Gaza Strip as a continued blockade causes rapid price rises in certain goods, a Palestine Monetary Authority inflation report finds
Research maps Norwegian challenges if oil prices stay low
Economic commentary considers how the increase in oil prices over the past decade has affected Norway in a bid to understand how the recent price drop could play out
Norway’s oil fund suffers loss in second quarter
Losses of about $9 billion were largely driven by the fixed-income portfolio, although equities delivered a weak performance; NBIM takes a more activist stance
BoJ’s Nakaso highlights changing behaviour of firms
Firms are increasingly investing and facing tighter labour market conditions, with record profits and higher wages providing a boost to the economy, but inflation is still stuck low
IMF paper: commodity prices are largely demand-driven
Working paper explores systemic risk, aggregate demand and commodity prices, finding the latter to be largely demand-driven, a conclusion they extend to non-core inflation
Bank of Canada cuts rates to support ‘complex adjustment’
Central bank says economy needs additional support as it restructures in response to complex impact from oil price shock; fears remain over imbalances in household sector
Sama publishes first financial stability report
Report indicates Saudi financial system is coping well, despite the 2014 oil price shock and continued geopolitical instability in the region; past year saw ‘significant’ regulatory change
Central Bank of Nigeria excludes importers from FX markets
Latest bid to relieve pressure on the naira sees wide range of importers and those looking to invest in foreign currency bonds and equities banned from making foreign exchange transactions
BoE’s Weale warns MPC may have underestimated oil price impact
A failure to grasp the full importance of ‘tail events’ may have caused the monetary policy committee to underestimate the strength and duration of the oil shock’s impact on inflation, Weale says
RBNZ paper investigates changes to inflation expectations after oil price shocks
Research suggests changes in expectations following real oil price shocks have ‘little or nothing to do with actual inflation outcomes’
Norway’s oil fund boosted by market rally and weak krone
Fund returns 5.3% in the first quarter, a new record in krone terms, led by strong equity returns and weak currency; fund continues to use clout to encourage ethical decisions by firms