Monetary policy
Policy rate forecasts influence expectations – Riksbank paper
New data allows researcher to assess the “potency” of rate forecasts, which do appear to influence expectations
Pace of monetary easing may slow, says Central Bank of Brazil
Committee unanimously cut interest rates to 10.25%, but political uncertainty could slow the future pace of easing; economist praises approach to monetary policy communication
Brainard turns cautious on inflation concerns
Lack of wage growth and lower than expected inflation data could slow further monetary easing, says Fed governor; interest rates are likely to rise “soon”
Book notes: Crash Bang Wallop, by Iain Martin
A comprehensive study of the City of London and how it became the world’s leading financial centre prior to the financial crisis and the UK’s vote to leave the European Union
Irish paper tracks monetary policy’s effects on mortgage default
Researchers use “quasi-natural experiment” based on data from two types of loan
Long-standing Uzbek central bank chairman dies
Fayzulla Mullazhanov led the central bank since its formation following the collapse of the Soviet Union
Kohn worried about weight of expectations on Federal Reserve
The weight of expectations on the US Fed may be too high; the US is not as well placed as the UK to tackle another major crisis, says the former Fed vice-chair
Authors struggle to cut ‘price puzzle’ from Australian data
Authors find various approaches to removing the puzzle from VAR models fail for Australian data, calling into question the usefulness of the models
Sarb should leave monetary policy alone – IMF
South Africa’s current monetary policy stance is bringing inflation under control, fund mission says, advising the central bank to leave government reforms to do the legwork following downgrade
Colombia’s Echavarría says monetary policy has been a challenge
Monetary policy has had to adapt to external headwinds that have caused macroeconomic imbalances for Colombia, central bank governor says; effects are now showing signs of abating
Central Bank of Egypt battles to contain devaluation impact
Inflation has rocketed since Egypt aligned official and black market exchange rates, forcing the central bank to take action
Fed should make sure it does not ‘fall behind’ – Mester
US central bank should “remain vigilant” as employment reaches full capacity and the balance sheet begins to unwind; the Cleveland Fed president sees more rate hikes this year
Bank of Mexico tightens policy for sixth time in a row
Hike should stop temporary rises in inflation from passing through, says central bank board; leaves door open for further rate hikes, with one eye on inflation and the other on the Fed
Former Fed vice-chair Kohn on populism, top central bankers
Donald Kohn speaks to Christopher Jeffery about his fears for the Fed amid mounting populism, why he has few policy regrets and his experiences working with some of the world’s top central bankers
Riksbank proposes changes to inflation target
Central bank plans to use a variable that avoids short-term distortions, and to reinstate a band around the target
Digital currency could remove need for positive inflation target, economists argue
Proposed digital framework eliminates the need for “inflation buffer” and promotes transparency of the balance sheet
PBoC deepens interest in fintech with new committee
Fintech committee will be charges with investigating the pros and cons of financial innovation and producing guidelines where appropriate; China’s central bank deepens cooperation with IMF
Ukraine’s Gontareva on one of the toughest jobs in central banking
The outgoing National Bank of Ukraine governor speaks about transforming the central bank while engaging in wartime deficit funding and overhauling the banking sector
IMF’s Werner: central banks need better understanding of interventions
Central banks in Latin America have employed a host of unconventional market interventions, but figuring out what works and what does not is proving tricky
Sterling depreciation will increase pace of tightening, BoE says
Inflation will overshoot target for longer period, reveals latest Inflation Report, but raising rates will not help, BoE says; “extraordinary circumstances” call for delicate balancing act
Barbados raises reserve requirements for first time in a decade
Acting governor holds first press conference since 2014 to field questions about state of the economy; country needs “stronger fiscal discipline” before it can go to IMF, Haynes says
The BoJ’s risky yield curve control experiment
The Bank of Japan’s experiment with yield curve control could work if appropriate targets and communication strategies were applied. But its current policy objectives are muddled
Fischer attacks ‘mechanical’ use of policy rules
Fed vice-chair says policy committees have strengths that rule-following lacks
John Williams backs move to price-level targeting
San Francisco Fed chief says inflation targeting is losing its effectiveness in the face of a very low natural rate