Labour
Wage growth may be stronger than headline figures suggest
San Francisco Fed researchers point to evidence that headline figures may overstate wage weakness; UK figures provide a positive surprise
Goodhart and Pradhan: demographics will reverse ‘multi-decade’ trends
Ageing population is likely to put upward pressure on real interest rates and inflation, and push down inequality, economists say
IMF research flags technology’s role in falling labour share of income
Automating routine tasks is cheaper for companies, which reduces jobs for middle-skilled workers and contributes to higher inequality in advanced economies, paper finds
BoE’s Broadbent: globalisation has been largely a good thing
Bank of England deputy says flexible labour market has helped dull the pain of adjustment to trade shocks, while lower prices have most benefited the poorest groups
BoE’s Haldane examines changing nature of work
Rise of “gig economy” and self-employment may have weakened wage-setting power among workers, the BoE chief economist says; he indicates a willingness to vote for a hike later this year
Wage growth remains a concern for Australia – Lowe
Governor warns low wage growth is hindering household consumption; there are some signs the labour market is recovering, with employment growth registering stronger in recent months
Inflation is preventing interest rates from rising faster, says Powell
Labour market progress points towards a faster pace of normalisation for the Fed, but below-target inflation is preventing rates from rising above the current “gradual pace”
Bank of England threatened with strike action over pay
Union members to be balloted on strike after being awarded a “derisory” 1% pay rise; UK inflation currently running at 2.7% and forecast to rise further
Sterling depreciation will increase pace of tightening, BoE says
Inflation will overshoot target for longer period, reveals latest Inflation Report, but raising rates will not help, BoE says; “extraordinary circumstances” call for delicate balancing act
BoJ paper sketches ‘vicious circle’ behind productivity traps
“Lacklustre” economic reforms and firms’ unwillingness to innovate may create a “negatively reinforcing” loop, the authors warn
Technology driving inequality in advanced economies – IMF
Technology plays “dominant role” in explaining falling labour share of income in advanced economies, study finds; globalisation more important for emerging markets
BoE’s Saunders expects higher post-Brexit growth than central forecast
Bank of England’s newest committee member says the labour market is likely to prove more sluggish than the consensus suggests, but growth will be more positive
Okun’s law is empirically robust but presents modelling problems, researchers say
Economists need to find more sophisticated methods to model the relationship between financial and labour markets, say the authors of an occasional paper published by the ECB
ECB data reveals changes in eurozone wage rigidity
ECB publishes its third survey of wage dynamics in the eurozone; it argues data is “crucial” to designing monetary and other macroeconomic policies
Iceland’s new macroeconomic council faces up to wage challenges
Collaboration between government, central bank and labour market groups aims to bring bouts of rapid wage growth under control and better co-ordinate policy
Technical issue affects Fed minutes release
Error in Federal Reserve equipment results in early release in some cases and late in others; minutes show Fed officials grappling with uncertainty amid slowing job growth and UK referendum fallout
Yellen says July hike ‘not impossible’ as Fed holds
Fed keeps policy unchanged as widely anticipated; expected path of interest rate hikes becomes more gradual while the long-run level is revised down again
Yellen upbeat but concerned by weak jobs data
Janet Yellen expects continued progress to Fed’s objectives; says latest labour market report is “concerning” but warns against reading too much into it
US jobs report puts Fed hike expectations on ice
Small increase in non-farm payrolls leads market to all but write off prospect of a rate hike later this month; Lael Brainard and Eric Rosengren keen to see more data
Fed presidents navigate ‘mixed signals’
Dennis Lockhart is putting more weight on positive employment picture than disappointing growth stats; both he and Robert Kaplan see potential for labour force to expand
Inflation and unemployment affect wage rigidity, Icelandic authors find
Research challenges New Keynesian assumption that timings of wage changes are exogenous, showing level of inflation and unemployment also matter
‘Compositional’ drag on wages set to fade, BoE article finds
Labour force composition has changed markedly in recent years, putting downward pressure on wages, but recent data implies the effect may soon dissipate, researchers say
BoE’s Weale sees shorter working week adding to inflation
Various measures suggest UK workers will gradually cut back on the number of hours they work over the next few years, adding to unit labour costs, external MPC member says
BoE’s Shafik says wages key to rate hike
Deputy governor says economy has been difficult to read in recent years but stronger growth in wages would be a major factor in prompting her to vote for a rate hike