Interest rates
Italian consumer lending more risk-priced post-2008 – paper
Institutions tightened lending to consumers based on household factors
Philadelphia Fed’s Harker forecasts only two hikes in 2018
Despite stronger growth and lower unemployment, inflation remains too weak
Explicit wording sought to jolt market expectations, says Carney
Bank of England governor says committee was unusually explicit ahead of November hike to encourage markets to wake up to its signals
A changing of the guard
Risks emerge amid leadership changes at the US Federal Reserve Board and the People’s Bank of China
BIS paper uses ‘shadow rate’ to study market expectations
Fan Dora Xia and Jing Cynthia Wu find they can estimate expectations over a longer horizon by using a shadow rate term structure model
NY Fed paper measures global capital flow pressures
The authors’ method allows them to estimate how sensitive countries are to changes in global risk aversion, as well as overcoming problems with capital flow data
Canada effecting a cautious normalisation – deputy governor
Uncertainties related to trade, high debt levels and slower growth may delay new rate hikes
Higher inflation in the US pushes up yields
The headline consumer price index rose by 2.1% year on year
Implementing a holistic and dynamic risk budget
The National Bank of Denmark has implemented a dynamic risk budget that takes the bank’s unavoidable policy risks as the point of departure. The new approach has led to a reassessment of investment exposures and how they are rebalanced over time and…
Riksbank leaves rates unchanged as inflation remains contained
Deputy governor Henry Ohlsson dissented and advocated raising rates by 25 basis points
Mester advocates continuing 2017 rate path this year
Cleveland Fed president says the current policy balances inflation and growth risks
Powell faces balancing act as normalisation proceeds
New Fed chair likely to continue policy normalisation even as market volatility tests his resolve
US real GDP growth accelerating in 2018 – Atlanta Fed
The real-time index GDPNow forecasts an annualised expansion of 4% in the first quarter
Chicago Fed’s Evans calls for caution in raising rates
Charles Evans makes the case for delaying rate rises, fearing inflation expectations may have drifted downwards
Interest rate risk could be seed of next crisis – economists
Financial markets may have underestimated the persistence of low rates, and regulations have amplified the threat, say Srichander Ramaswamy and Philip Turner
Philippines central bank on hold, despite surging inflation
January inflation hits three-year high, prompting many to expect a rate hike in the coming months
BoE opens door to May rate hike
MPC votes to keep current policy stance, but notes more positive inflation outlook; policy may now need to be tightened “by a somewhat greater degree”
IMF urges Indonesian authorities to focus on policy transmission
Interest rate caps and limited banking competition have left market interest rates “slow to adapt” to changes in monetary policy
Taxes putting pressure on investment in India – RBI’s Patel
Reserve Bank of India leaves interest rates on hold, expressing concerns that latest budget threatens to push inflation out of target zone
A dangerous unknown: interest rate risk in the financial system
Urgent action is needed to tackle the little-understood build-up of interest rate risk in the global financial system; macro-pru tools still inadequate to tackle the issue
Plunging shares may be another sign of economic strength
The sell-off may be a reaction to stronger economic indicators and expectations of a hawkish Fed, say analysts
Wage growth refuses to budge, RBA’s Lowe says
Governor notes employment levels have improved and will continue to improve over the policy horizon, but wage growth continues to disappoint
Bank of Japan increases bond purchases amid global sell-off
Both the prime minister and the governor see no rush to withdraw stimulus
CNB raises Czech rates to return inflation to target
A stronger currency is supporting the central bank in its efforts to control price pressures