Inflation uncertainty a ‘substantial’ threat to economic growth, says Polish paper


Increased uncertainty around inflation suppresses economic activity, according to a working paper published by the National Bank of Poland on January 28.

The authors, Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren, analyse individual inflation and real GDP growth expectations data, primarily from the European Central Bank's survey of professional forecasts between 1999 and 2012.

The paper finds that expectations of future price and real GDP growth are positively correlated. Similarly, inflation uncertainty

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