Inflation
Rethinking policy transmission in the age of AI
Managing machine expectations related to faster, more non-linear and potentially asymmetric price dynamics will require analytical innovation and potentially new forms of oversight, argues Elisa Vilorio de Painter
Emerging market central banks should be hawkish – NBER paper
Stronger reactions to inflation surges help to build institutions’ reputations, researchers argue
Firms slow to adjust investment targets for inflation – BoJ study
Discount rates are sticky and do not rise with expected increases in price levels, research finds
Asia-Pacific central banks list geopolitics, AI among key challenges
EMEAP, representing monetary authorities from across region, commits to strengthening co-operation
ECB holds rates for third consecutive time
Lagarde celebrates ‘fading risks’ to eurozone growth thanks to trade deals and Gaza ceasefire
Swiss price controls do not depress inflation – SNB paper
CPI metric would ‘not have greatly differed’ had it excluded price-controlled goods, study finds
Japan holds rates, as expected, with two dissenting votes
BoJ governor says there is no ‘preset idea’ on future rate rises after dissenters call for 25bp hike
Fed cuts rates with dissenting votes in both directions
Risks to employment and prices split FOMC three ways
Give BoJ policy space to fight inflation, says Bessent
US Treasury secretary hints at preference for rate hikes before Japan’s central bank meets
Trade fragmentation not always inflationary – BoE study
Tariffs influence prices based on how sudden the shock is and how demand adjusts, researchers say
Interesting developments in currency denomination structures
Antti Heinonen explores recent changes in currency structures and the reasons behind them
US inflation regime persistently above target now – Fed economist
Price rises are broad-based and have significantly impacted expectations says researcher
AI, low productivity, and trade in focus at G30
Georgieva, Bailey and Lagarde speak on stretched AI evaluations and distortionary trade policies
Top officials weigh impact of trade war and AI
ECB president says impact of US tariffs has been “exact opposite” of expectations
Tariffs will not solve US ‘twin deficits’, BdF governor says
Villeroy de Galhau wants to maintain spirit of transatlantic co-operation despite disagreements
Singapore holds policy as economy slows
MAS says this year’s growth will continue to moderate over coming quarters
The voice of the central bank in times of uncertainty
The NBU’s monetary policy head Volodymyr Lepushynskyi explains the importance of transparent communications in maintaining trust and managing expectations
Iceland, Romania and Serbia hold, while Poland cuts rates
High food inflation continues to affect eastern Europe
Philippines unexpectedly cuts policy rate
Central bank says government spending concerns have weakened business sentiment
Asean+3 central banks have space to buffer shocks – Amro report
Study says institutions are capable of more accommodative policy, should external circumstances demand it
New Zealand makes 50bp cut amid weak economic growth
Independent economists were split over level of easing, central bank says it is open to cutting further
Egypt continues easing cycle with 100bp cuts
Slowing inflation and strong currency provide room for lowering rates as country expects IMF review
Central banks must focus on comms – Bank of Finland panel
Institutions need to concentrate on anchoring inflation expectations, governors say
BoE’s Breeden dismisses worries over UK’s persistent inflation
September’s flare-up in prices will not have significant second-round effects, deputy governor says