Geopolitics
Jamaica and Uruguay hold rates
Central banks cite deteriorating geopolitical tensions and extreme weather as upside inflation risks
ECB finds gaps in geopolitical stress-testing frameworks
Current methods fail to properly capture impact of geopolitical stress on liquidity
Strong recovery in US treasury purchases is ‘unlikely’ – paper
Central banks’ demand for US government bonds has ‘plateaued’ as reserve managers diversify
Peru holds rates for eleventh time in a row
BCRP highlights risk of escalating conflict in Middle East and more severe El Niño on inflation
Central Bank of Brazil delays crypto transfers to fight fraud
Latin America’s largest economy targets stablecoins after Trump’s tariffs against Pix
Mexico and Nicaragua hold interest rates
Banxico revises upwards its forecast for hitting 3% inflation target; while Nicaragua expects inflation to remain “low and stable”
ECB succession race: Netherlands throws weight behind Knot
Former DNB governor receives official backing
Eurozone banks get reality check after ECB geopolitical stress test
Financial institutions struggling to embed geopolitical risks into resilience testing, ECB says
South Korea to resume gold buying and may vault domestically
BoK’s reserves head cites geopolitical risks as motivator for institutional gold purchasing
‘Hybrid’ regimes more exposed to sanctions – BdF study
Measures more likely to succeed against authoritarian states with an element of democratisation
Bank of England keeps rates at 3.75%
Split 6–3 decision points to divisions over inflation outlook amid escalation of Iran war
Chile holds rates for fifth time amid Iran war escalation
Policy-makers inject caution into statement as conflict intensifies, analysts say
Bank Indonesia governor resigns unexpectedly
Central bank cites personal reasons for Perry Warjiyo’s departure as independence concerns mount
Implications of the 2026 Middle East war
Gavin Bingham, Paul Fisher and Andrew Large detail the monetary policy, financial stability and international co-operation challenges for central banks
Paraguay holds rates while Costa Rica cuts by quarter point
Both central banks face below-target inflation despite global energy price shock
Asia-Pacific central banks say AI risks require ‘vigilance, agility’
MAS and BoT also sign anti-fraud MoU on sidelines of meeting involving 11 monetary authorities
Ghana holds rates for second time this year
‘Vigilance is the word’ amid heightened geopolitical tensions, says governor
Geopolitical risks cause eurozone banks to tighten credit
ECB’s quarterly survey shows lenders alert to continued instability resulting from Iran war
Jasmina Selimović on managing Europe’s last currency board
The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina governor speaks about building resilience to counter geoeconomic shocks, strengthening reforms amid EU convergence, addressing stablecoin and NBFI risks, Sepa integration, and capacity building.
BoE’s scenarios are best way forward, say ex-MPC members
Former UK policy-makers say forecasting approach is suited to today’s highly uncertain times
Odean White on cyber, natural disasters and geopolitical risks
Bank of Jamaica’s chief risk officer discusses weather event contingency planning, the impact of ‘shocks’ on policy, being proactive on quantum, and countering phishing and AI-enabled attacks