Central Banking
Capital flows are 'fickle' and always have been, paper finds
Capital flow volatility is a fact of life for all economies at all points in time, say IMF researchers, who point out that bigger advanced economies are best placed to deal with ebb and flow
Mauritius introduces polymer banknotes
The Bank of Mauritius joins an exclusive but growing group of central banks that is looking to plastic money to curtail counterfeiting
Norwegian paper explores financial stability trade-off
Working paper identifies trade-off between increasing rates to mitigate financial imbalances and lowering rates to reduce the risk of bank insolvency
Czech paper dissects central bank inflation reports
Researchers find the inflation reports produced by a sample of eight central banks are ‘generally of good quality’ but warn their analytical power cannot be taken for granted
Yellen must overcome deputies’ curse to take Fed chair
Fed vice-chair Janet Yellen will need to avoid joining Paul Tucker, Tiff Macklem, Karnit Flug and other discarded deputies to take the top job at the Fed as governments increasingly favour outsiders
Israeli banking supervisor floats full risk weights for mortgages
Draft guidance presented to Bank of Israel advisory committee yesterday would also force banks to limit the use of variable interest rates and do away with long-term loans
Fed contemplates change to forward guidance
Minutes from the FOMC’s July meeting show members were divided over the outlook for the US economy, and on the prospect of tinkering with the Fed’s forward guidance
BIS researchers use profit-elasticity method to measure China bank competition
Working paper finds competition has increased among China's banks; new PE indicator produces result consistent with financial sector reform
Norges Bank deputy backs Bayesian econometrics in policy-making
Jan Qvigstad highlights how Bayesian econometrics have been used to develop two of the central bank’s ’most important’ forecasting tools
Riksbank deputy: Slowing Swedish growth to be buoyed by eurozone recovery
Kerstin af Jochnick says Riksbank will conduct flexible monetary policy accounting for growth in household debt until macro-prudential policy has been established
Central bank insider selected to run Russia's new ‘mega-regulator'
As head of the FMS, Sergey Shvetsov, a Bank of Russia deputy, will be in charge of ‘controlling, regulating and supervising' the country's financial markets from September 1
Terms of trade volatility exacerbates shock effects for small open economies
Research conducted at the Reserve Bank of Australia says big fluctuations in terms of trade compound the effects of a terms of trade shock in small, open economies
People: StanChart's new global RMB team; RBC hires Asian equities head from JPM
Carmen Ling quits Citi to head Standard Chartered's new global renminbi-focused team; RBC hires new head of Asian equities from JP Morgan in Hong Kong; and more
LCRs in low-liquidity settings lead to big externalities
RBA research paper suggests introducing a liquidity coverage ratio in certain settings leads to large liquidity premiums and pushes the risk-free rate to the floor of the interest rate corridor
Turkish central bank embarks on daily dollar sales
Announcement follows yesterday's decision to raise interest rates, but fails to stop lira hitting record low against Western currencies
Bundesbank’s Dombret urges co-ordination over shadow banking
Executive board member says shadow banking activities are 'not evil' but do produce systemic risks; highlights need to track banks’ exposures to shadow entities and manage ownership links
RBI loosens liquidity as long-term rates spike
Reserve Bank of India moves to ease liquidity squeeze, as measures to support the currency see long-term rates hit 12-year high
Unemployment strongest predictor of mortgage default in the US
Atlanta Fed research finds that individual unemployment increases the probability of mortgage default by 5 to 13 percentage points compared with average sample
Swelling profits explain rebound in risk appetite, San Fran Fed paper suggests
Research indicates corporate profit growth explains 40% of the decline in the spread between risky and risk-free bonds, according to economic letter by research vice-president
Irish central bank appoints top French supervisor as deputy governor
Cyril Roux, previously second-in-command at the French prudential supervisory authority, will join the Central Bank of Ireland as deputy governor with responsibility for financial regulation
Fed urges big banks to improve internal capital planning
Federal Reserve says lenders must strengthen methods for assessing risks; reveals 18 biggest US lenders face challenges in one or more areas
EM central banks in a bind as capital volatility set to worsen
Central banks in the biggest emerging market economies are bracing for ever faster outflows of capital if tomorrow's FOMC minutes continue to point to US monetary tightening
RBNZ restricts low-deposit mortgage lending
Graeme Wheeler says banks will face ‘speed limit’ on their high loan-to-value mortgage lending from October 1; RBNZ hopes to avoid raising rates while currency remains over-valued
Break-even value of PMI is not 50 but 44, RBI working paper suggests
Wholesale Price Index inflation turns positive when PMI exceed 44, according to research; paper also finds that PMI predict the movements of final WPI