Research
Unconventional monetary policy has heightened medium-term risks to banks, IMF paper finds
No evidence that unconventional monetary policies has ‘helped' banks, according to paper; finds deterioration of medium-term bank credit risk in US, UK, and the eurozone
IMF paper finds Latam growth likely to slow even if commodity prices remain elevated
Growth over next half-decade expected to be 150bp lower than during boom years; need for 'ambitious structural reforms' to secure 'medium-term growth'
Southern African economies appear to be converging
Bank of Botswana economists find SADC countries are moving in the same direction, but probably more by accident than by design
Firm-level characteristics affect monetary policy transmission, Czechs find
Working paper finds firm-specific characteristics like size, age, collateral and profit, affect the way in which monetary policy changes are reflected in the external financing decisions of firms
Paper examines optimal monetary policy for wages and hours worked
Firms tend to pay too little for too many hours, economists argue in ECB-published paper; monetary policy should not target inflation too strictly, they say
Global imbalances still on the rise, IMF paper shows
Though efforts have been made to cut current account imbalances since the financial crisis, ‘stock imbalances' continue to grow, find Milesi-Ferretti and Lane
IMF paper finds ‘robust' relationship between exchange rate flexibility and external adjustment
Using a data set of bilateral exchange rate regimes, study revives Milton Friedman's argument that a flexible rate facilitates external adjustment
US and Europe more vital for Australian trade than thought
Australian goods being exported to western markets indirectly via east Asia, skewing statistics, according to paper using ‘complementary' estimates of value-added trade
IMF paper finds ‘puzzling' result from capital controls
Controls to stop capital inflows deflect them to other countries, the paper finds, but are rarely met with copycat measures in recipient countries
New York Fed study finds Puerto Rico emigration has not led to 'brain drain'
Island's population has been falling for a decade due to emigration, but share of college graduates has increased as low-skilled workers are leaving in greater numbers
Minneapolis Fed paper challenges New Keynesian ‘liquidity trap'
New model challenges dominant view of post-crisis monetary policy, claim Minneapolis Fed economists
Ireland working paper examines effect of ECB policy on interbank repo market
Research by economists from Central Bank of Ireland, New York Fed and Barclays Capital finds some substitution effect between official auctions and repo market activity
IMF paper considers corporate governance reform in Japan
IMF researchers say corporate governance reform could help ‘unstash the cash’ held by Japanese firms and improve the economy’s growth potential
Bundesbank economists propose indicator for price competitiveness
Working paper published by the European Central Bank develops new indicator for international price competitiveness in an attempt to provide a tool for policy analysis
Japan's ageing population will have deflationary effects, IMF paper finds
Deflationary effect will hit other advanced economies too, but can be countered through monetary policy and structural reforms, IMF economists write
Shrinking BoJ balance sheet will take longer post-QQE than in 2006
Economist says unwinding the BoJ’s asset purchases will take longer when QQE finishes than it did at the end of QE in 2006, because this time it is buying bonds with longer maturities
ECB paper quantifies OMT benefits
OMT announcements depressed Italian and Spanish two-year government bond yields by roughly 200 basis points, but left their French and German equivalents ‘largely unaffected’
Adjusted calculation of US employment-to-population ratio signals return to pre-crisis level
Atlanta Fed paper uses micro-data to account for individual characteristics and probability of labour force participation; finds ratio has regained pre-recession level of nearly 63%
ECB economists find ‘considerable heterogeneity’ in impact of crisis
Researchers say that while borrowers ‘benefited’ from low interest rates, debt burdens increased for poor households as their incomes fell
Polish paper proposes new model for risk of ‘double default' on collateralised loans
Commonly used Gaussian copula-based approach does not properly capture the residual risk to central bank balance sheets posed by correlated defaults
Better budgeting tools could encourage low earners to switch from cash to card
Researchers find that low earners prefer to use cash over the debit card because they find it more effective as a monitoring and budgeting tool
BoE working group finds ‘striking' changes in investment behaviour by insurers and pension funds
Nature of investments has changed markedly over the past 15 years, says Andrew Haldane-led group, which also includes Oxford professor Ian Goldin and Jim O'Neill
BIS paper with New York Fed unveils new measure of underlying inflation
Economists from the Bank for International Settlements and Federal Reserve Bank of New York present a new measure that can be updated on a daily basis
Preferential treatment distorts banks' demand for government bonds
Transaction-level data suggests comparatively beneficial liquidity and capital regulation is incentivising banks to swap other bonds for sovereign debt