Research
Spanish economists devise system for detecting risks to budget forecasts
Working paper published by the Bank of Spain presents a new ‘toolkit’ to monitor the government budget in real time; authors say it will help protect state’s reputation
Academics in charge make companies better off, Bank of Finland paper finds
Discussion paper finds that firms benefit from having academic directors, who are associated with improved acquisition performance and higher numbers of patents
Forecasting of ECB and New York Fed became ‘noticeably worse’ during crisis
Researchers at the ECB and New York Fed examined forecasting performance of their central banks; finding they suffered during the crisis, but not more than external parties
ECB finds Phillips curve 'insufficient’ to forecast inflation
Article in latest ECB monthly bulletin finds evidence of a ‘curve-type relationship’ between inflation and economic slack, but the specification is ‘subject to considerable uncertainty’
IMF paper examines banks’ public bond holdings
Working paper published by the IMF finds that large banks accumulate high-risk public bonds during sovereign crises; examines relationship with bank lending
European researchers examine impact of capital inflows on long-term interest rates
Bank of Portugal working paper says the foreign accumulation of eurozone bonds may have led to “excessive risk-taking” at a global level by depressing interest rates
Luxembourg paper busts myth of money ‘parked’ with central banks
Researcher at the Central Bank of Luxembourg argues the increase in central bank deposits in the Eurosystem is not a reflection of banks’ lending habits
Price competitiveness strong in the US but weak in China, Bundesbank paper finds
Proposes ‘simple productivity approach-based' method for calculating a ‘consistent set of multilateral indicators' of price competitiveness
Solomon Islands paper investigates monetary policy transmission mechanism
Second paper in a new series from the Central Bank of the Solomon Islands examines role of M1 and exchange rate on inflation and output in the Pacific archipelago
Dutch paper: Fed guidance pushed up equity prices abroad
Working paper published by The Netherlands Bank attempts to quantify impact of Fed’s forward guidance on international equity markets
Atlanta Fed blog links inequality to rising education
Economic commentary published by the Atlanta Fed finds the growth in educational attainment in the US in the past decade contributed to rising levels of inequality
Financial crisis could cut long-term productivity by hitting spending on R&D
Bank of England working paper investigates the possibility that the drop in the UK's productivity since the crisis is due to the higher relative cost of investing in innovation
Solomon Islands central bank publishes first working paper
Paper considers the efficacy of monetary targeting in Solomon Islands; finds evidence suggesting it is more effective than inflation targeting would be
Irish brief examines relationship between rate changes and bond yields
Economic letter published by the Central Bank of Ireland compares the impact of rate changes on bond yields in the eurozone and Switzerland
Polish paper finds ‘substantial decrease’ in impact of exchange rate on consumer prices
Researchers say the exchange rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism has weakened, but inflation has become more responsive to interest rate changes
Macro-pru beats monetary policy for open-economy financial stability
IMF working paper uses open economy framework to show macro-prudential policies are more welfare-enhancing than interest rate rises in seeing off over-exuberance
French economists find UMP had ‘significant’ impact on sovereign yield spreads
Working paper breaks down the determinants of sovereign yield spreads in OECD countries; size of ECB’s balance sheet effects spreads differently across eurozone member states
Riksbank brief: Virtual currencies 'essentially positive'
Digital money can make payments 'cheaper and more secure', argues staffer in economic commentary; risks mean virtual currencies should be assessed on a case-by-case basis
Capital controls and exposure to China help EMs weather taper storm
IMF working paper isolates determinants of taper impact on emerging markets; finds capital controls, macro-prudential policies, and exposure to China can mitigate harm
IMF's Singh discusses ‘financial plumbing' issues as central banks leave ZLB
IMF's Manmohan Singh investigates issues around bank balance sheet regulations which may impact monetary policy options as central banks leave the zero lower bound
Hungarian economists take on ‘delayed overshoot' puzzle
Central Bank of Hungary economists examine the effect of carry trade activity on exchange rate dynamics, finding it does not explain delayed overshoot
IMF paper makes case for new policy rate in Kazakhstan
Economists say the National Bank of Kazakhstan should be equipped with a new policy rate to give it more direct influence over short-term interest rates
Finland paper: Loans-to-deposits among best indicators of banking crises
Paper examines banking crises in 11 EU countries between 1980-2013; growth rates and trend deviations of loan stock variables also yield 'useful' signals of impending crises
Banque de France paper quantifies impact of EBA capital exercise on lending
Banque de France working paper examines lending behaviour of banks subjected to the recapitalisation exercise ran by the European Banking Authority in 2011–12