International
‘Declaring war on the world economy’: economists react to Trump tariffs
Early estimates point to stagflation in US, as tariffs hit highest level since early 20th century
Do Trump/Doge materially threaten the Federal Reserve?
Experts weigh in on the danger levels for the US central bank, including whether it is overstaffed
Central banks report high levels of independence
Institutions across regions and income groups report significant autonomy from political interference
Vector-based language model can improve forecasts – BIS paper
“Word embeddings” can be used to make better inflation predictions, authors find
Banknotes: January to March 2025
A round-up of news and salient issues that have affected central bankers in the past three months
One in five central banks pays unrealised gains to government
Most central banks have a formal agreement in place for sharing profits with government
Agent-based models come of age
Central banks are increasingly modelling the economy as a complex system
Central Banking Awards 2025: final winners announced
Last group of awards includes governor of the year and lifetime achievement
US dollar dominance: beyond the ‘exorbitant privilege’
Biagio Bossone argues that dollar ‘seigniorage’ extends into the very structure of global finance and its ‘exorbitant privilege’ is worth up to $804 billion annually
Central Banking Awards 2025: third group of winners released
Paraguay recognised for market infrastructure and IMF for work on AI, as green and FMI awards also unveiled
Central Banking Awards 2025: second group of winners unveiled
Awards recognise growth-at-risk research, transparency, digital transformation and more
ECB framework needs ‘few tweaks’ – panellists
Digital euro is “even more important” in the wake of Trump CBDC ban, says BdF governor
Gilt repo clearing mandate on Bank of England’s radar
Sources say regulator mulling benefits of US-inspired regime, but is non-committal
Bigger housing booms create deeper downturns – IMF paper
Rapid home price rises can trigger big economic busts and misallocations of resources, authors find
The interest rate dilemma in an uncertain world: a balancing act
Biagio Bossone makes the case for a holistic policy approach that includes extending IT tolerance bands, smart fiscal policies, supply-side reform and financial safeguards
Central banks struggling to adopt latest data standards – BIS survey
Most institutions use SDMX, but resource constraints are limiting the benefits
‘Sandpile’ model makes case for supervisory intervention
IMF paper finds that arranging sales of failing banks is best policy, despite some side effects
‘Dark’ oil shipping impacts inflation – paper
Research finds nearly 43% of seaborne crude is shipped undercover to evade sanctions
Trump, the Fed and climate’s undeniable systemic risk
Experts disagree on the impact of the Fed’s withdrawal from the NGFS but are united about climate change’s devastating effect on the financial system
Monetary policy can harm its own transmission – IMF paper
Impact on mortgage choices means easing can weaken pass-through in future
Risk Management Benchmarks 2025 – executive summary
The benchmarks reveal an ongoing focus on cyber risk, but climate and AI risks are rising fast
Central banks need to step up their crisis management plans
Patrick Honohan argues that robust preparation can better protect reputations in the event of a crisis
Large firms drive inflation in advanced economies – BIS study
Analysis of barcode scanner data finds pricing decisions by individual companies have outsize impact
Rising corporate distress could trigger instability – IMF paper
Study says emerging markets particularly exposed as firms struggle with higher interest rates