International
Economists win prize for agent-based forecast model
Authors say theirs is the first agent-based model to produce competitive economic forecasts
Policy-makers debate central banks’ role in tackling climate change
Some see central banks as important co-ordinators; others warn they could overreach
Financial sector still a headache for central bank modellers
Macro-financial links are difficult to integrate into key models, with progress since the global financial crisis slow. But some central banks are making breakthroughs
NGFS unveils second set of climate change scenarios
New scenarios use NiGEM macro model and take much more granular approach, officials say
Sizing the benefits and risks of our climate ambition
Fixing climate change is likely to entail substantial risks, new NGFS scenarios show. Firms and supervisors must seize this opportunity to adapt, write Sarah Breeden and Frank Elderson
Governance Benchmarks 2021 report – the frameworks that rule central banks
How are central banks governed? Benchmarking data offers insights on appointments, legal structures, powers, decision-making bodies, independence and more
Firms and supervisors must ‘transform’ climate risk management – regulators
Complexity and uncertainty demand major rethink of risk, say ‘Green Swan’ event speakers
Mandatory climate disclosures needed now – senior central bankers
Greening monetary policy operations should also be a priority, policy-makers say
‘Run it hot’: the risks and rewards of a new policy era
Covid-19 has added impetus to an emerging intellectual shift in policy-making. But central banks face unresolved issues – on expectations, on fiscal policy, and on the capacity of the economy to ‘run hot’
The Belt and Road Initiative 2021 Survey – The impact of Covid‑19 on the BRI
The fourth annual Belt and Road Initiative survey reveals that the Covid‑19 pandemic has disrupted many projects despite China remaining committed to financing the initiative, which is expected to support future economic growth and environmental…
FSB sets targets to tackle cross-border payments issues
Proposals are “foundational step” in G20 initiative to improve global payments
Inequality can worsen recessions – BIS paper
But authors say there is little evidence that income inequality affects consumption in normal times
A return of the inflation monster?
There are fears that a shift in intellectual approach towards running economies ‘hot’ could herald a return of the money-eating inflation era
Should the Fed’s Fima facility be made permanent?
The emergency repo facility reassures reserve managers about access to dollar cash during a breakdown in the US Treasuries market
Benoît Cœuré on CBDCs, stablecoins and central bank fintech co-operation
BIS Innovation Hub chief voices concerns about the timing of stablecoin and CBDC roll-outs, fintech risks for supervisors and monetary policy, and details development plans for eight innovation locations
IMF proposes $50bn plan to ‘end the Covid-19 pandemic’
“Upfront” financing is needed to accelerate vaccinations, say Georgieva, Gopinath and Agarwal
Number of women in financial services is ‘pathetic’ – IMF’s Georgieva
IMF and ECB heads say central banks must increase their representation of women
The future of forward guidance
BNP Paribas Asset Management explores the current landscape around forward guidance, focusing on how central banks’ methods of communication are likely to evolve in the future. By Richard Barwell
Book notes: Quantitative easing, by Jonathan Ashworth
Well-documented and fairly comprehensive book for anyone, including central bankers, wanting an overview of how monetary policy has evolved in recent decades
Emerging markets pass capital flows test
BIS report concludes inflows are broadly positive, as improved EM institutions make them more resilient
Don’t dismiss inflation risks but don’t overreact, say central bankers
Sbordone, Smets and Vlieghe weigh up challenges for central banks in the “return towards normal”
Diem shifts focus to US dollar stablecoins
Move away from Switzerland sees former Libra Association distance itself from original multi-currency plans
BoE paper explores liquidity traps with ‘Hank’ model
Precautionary savings can send economy into deflationary spiral, authors find
The new era of money supply and its impact on policy
The empirical relationship between money and inflation has changed, writes Manmohan Singh, with Apoorv Bhargava and Peter Stella. To understand current policy challenges, we must first understand money creation