International
Gontareva on Ukraine’s funding, NBU policy and reconstruction
Former NBU governor Valeria Gontareva speaks about donor funding shortfalls, NBU policy and financial stability challenges, Nabuillina and the seizing of Russian assets, and post-conflict rebuilding and modernisation
Geostrategic risks now a major factor – CNB reserves head
Ondrej Strádal supports use of CBR reserves for reparations, is reassessing renminbi allocations and has US recession as a ‘base case’ scenario
Taking a cue from the top: governor turnover and independence
Central bank governors tend to have long tenures, but what that means can vary. High turnover remains a worrisome signal
Long-term data can shed light on current inflation – NBER paper
Authors suggest first half of 20th century has clearer parallel to current inflation than 1970s
Central banks should ‘overestimate’ inflation persistence, says economist
Academic argues central banks should act as if exogenous shocks are likely to be persistent
The PBoC, real estate debt and financial stability in China
Central bank policy-makers are restricted in terms of capacity and space by their efforts to manage the nation’s property bubble amid declining growth
Firms use supply chains to predict inflation – IMF paper
Authors find expectation formation diverges from rational expectations hypothesis
Ukraine’s wartime economy faces possible crisis
Foreign donors must increase financing of Ukrainian government, NBU ex-governor and current government adviser argue
‘Very little support’ for a US Treasury clearing mandate – Isda
Dealers and clients prefer carrot to stick in efforts to improve Treasury market liquidity
Monetary policy ‘increasingly synchronised’, say IMF officials
Very few central banks have bucked the global trend since the start of the pandemic
Colombian study estimates policy impact on capital flows
Meta-analysis using web scraping finds central banks have more control over some flows than others
Communications Benchmarks 2022 – presentation
Central Banking’s economics subject matter specialist Daniel Hinge on communications governance, social media, media monitoring and more
Central banks weighing up CBDC offline alternatives
Institutions are testing ways of allowing digital payments without the internet
How central bank mistakes after 2019 led to inflation
Central banks must acknowledge their own mistakes and outline concrete steps to restore the public’s confidence in their ability to ensure price stability, write Graeme Wheeler and Bryce Wilkinson*
Activity-based regulation will not guarantee level playing field – BIS paper
Authors propose framework to clarify use of entity- and activity-based regulations
The case for restoring the role of monetary aggregates
Tim Congdon argues that a surge in money supply in response to Covid-19 sparked heightened inflation and central banks need to refocus their attention on monetary aggregates
IMF stresses inflation risks may rise further
In such a case, central banks will need to be more resolute in securing price stability
Inflation offers route to unconventional policy exit
Asset purchases and negative rates can be reversed, but Fed/ECB policy divergence raises major risks
Monetary Policy Benchmarks 2022 report – executive summary
Benchmarking data sheds light on some of the key aspects of central bank operating frameworks
People: World Bank appoints Gill as chief economist
Two members join Bank of Japan board, and senior IMF officials Lester and Rice step down
Monetary Policy Benchmarks 2022 report – a pandemic legacy
Benchmarks data offers insights into how Covid has impacted policy frameworks, plus governance, market operations and policy transparency
Corporate debt is a growing threat to financial stability
Policy-makers need to take action as tighter financial conditions risk tipping firms into distress, says Pedro Duarte Neves
Labour supply key to understanding inflation, Shin tells G20
Understanding labour market is critical task for policy-makers, BIS head of research says
Rethinking regulation of the modern financial system
Bank of Italy’s Maurizio Trapanese writes that rules need to address uncertainty as well as measurable risks, entity types as well as activities, and should not be overly complex