Europe
The ECB’s collateral conundrum
A lack of high-quality collateral in the eurozone has resulted in money market rates lagging ECB policy rates, hampering monetary policy transmission
Majority of central banks prefer economists with master’s degree
Economists are sponsored more for training than for PhDs
Economics teams constitute just a fraction of central banks’ total workforce
Most institutions have more policy economists than research colleagues
Staff with PhDs make up 21.3% of average economics department
Four-fifths of advanced economy institutions sponsor economists to undertake PhD qualification
Banknotes: October to December 2022
A round-up of news and salient issues that have affected central bankers in the past three months
Eurozone inflation falls for first time in 17 months, estimates say
Eurostat figures show inflation dropping in most countries, including Germany
Central banks judge success of research by number of publications
Inflation and exchange rate most topical issues for central banks
Knot and Schnabel strike hawkish tone on ECB policy
Portuguese governor calls for an end to 75bp hikes; Lagarde says inflation may still rise
Use of centralised data services increases across institutions
Rise of central data teams has gone hand in hand with greater use of alternative data
People: Esma appoints vice-chair
HKMA names deputy chief executive; MAS expands sustainability group
Alternative data used at most central banks
Non-traditional data such as Google searches widely used to support research and forecasting
Research economists devote more working time to own projects
On average, own research works consume 25% of policy economists’ working time
Advanced economy institutions tend to produce more papers
Emerging market researchers averaged five papers a year in peer-reviewed journals
ECB paper presents new corporate default prediction method
Authors say their “distance to insolvency” measure outperforms other forecasting methods
Research agenda determined across multiple levels
Governors and deputy governors give final sign-off on most research publications
Majority of banks blend research and policy functions
Only one in five jurisdictions restructured economics unit in the past 12 months
Growth and inflation are top forecast indicators
More emerging markets forecast growth and inflation compared with the past year
Eurozone banks’ TLTRO repayments are below market expectations
Slow pace of repayments may hamper ECB policy normalisation, some analysts say
ECB joins ‘Gaia-X’ data and cloud network project
Initiative aims to build a European data ecosystem to boost “digital sovereignty”
ECB’s policy rate should reach 2% in December, Villeroy de Galhau says
Banque de France governor says “jumbo” rate hikes “will not become a new habit”
ECB warns array of risks threatens financial system
Luis de Guindos calls on governments to avoid fiscal policies running against tighter monetary policy
Climate change may have serious effects on natural rate – ECB paper
Monetary policy may need more flexibility to deal with climate and green transition, researchers say
ECB’s Panetta warns tighter policy could inflict unnecessary damage
Monetary policy could permanently reduce potential output, argues ECB board member
Banknote volumes and values rose among most central banks
Most recent estimates show volume and value of circulating notes rising in 2022