Brazil
Brazil’s inflation forecasts send mixed messages for monetary policy
‘Market’ forecast suggests there is a limit to monetary easing, central bank minutes show, though ‘reference’ scenario indicates room for more easing
Brazil makes first interest rate cut in four years
Upbeat inflation figures prompt Central Bank of Brazil into action as Copom unanimously votes for 25bp cut; post-decision statement implies further cuts possible this year
No timelines for easing monetary policy – Brazilian governor
Goldfajn comments on monetary policy arrangement in Brazil at the first IMF annual meeting appearance; decisions will be data-dependent, he says
Brazilian policy-makers concerned about inflation outlook
Monetary policy committee left rates on hold, concerned with the results of various surveys which showed inflation above the target for 2017
Goldfajn faces independence test
Ilan Goldfajn has abundant technical skills required to run Brazil's central bank. But he could face similar political pressures as his predecessor at a troubled time for the Brazilian economy.
People: Mongolia gets new first deputy; BIS names Financial Stability Institute chair
Erdembileg Ochirkhuu joins Bank of Mongolia as first deputy shortly after new governor takes office; Fernando Restoy to chair Basel-based body; World Bank names new chief economist; and more
Financial crises raise transmission of US spillovers to Latin America – paper
Central Bank of Colombia paper shows Brazil is a “net transmitter” of volatility; transmission of spillovers increases in times of political and financial uncertainty
Tombini remains amid Brazilian presidential overhaul
Central Bank of Brazil governor remains in post; new finance minister to keep him on for a transition period, analyst suggests, but new appointment could follow
Medium-sized banks are main contributors to systemic risk in Brazilian interbank market, paper says
Emergence of bank communities may act as triggers for systemic risk, stress test scenario shows; medium-sized banks carry non-negligible default probabilities
Fed QE drives portfolio rebalancing towards foreign assets, Brazil paper finds
Research analyses ‘comprehensive’ dataset for Brazilian capital flows and a smaller one for other EM economies
IMF paper examines effect of ‘winning the oil lottery’
Research into the impact of oil discovery in certain municipalities in Brazil shows GDP per capita and urbanisation on the rise
Central Bank of Brazil faces ‘policy dilemmas’
Tombini facing tough challenge as inflation rises into double figures while the IMF predicts deeper recession; observers divided on what comes next
BIS paper finds forecasters put too much faith in private information
‘Noisy information model’ of inflation forecasting implies forecasters put inefficient weightings on private information to differentiate themselves
Haircuts on sovereign debt ‘open the door for more leverage’, research finds
Prolonged low interest rates also contribute to an overleveraged economy in case of crisis; though in times of ‘low crisis’ they can help decelerate fiscal adjustment
Economists point to external woes as Central Bank of Brazil holds rates
Monetary policy committee leaves interest rate at 14.25% in surprise move; politics and fiscal policy making life harder for central bank, analysts suggest
IMF cuts global growth forecast on back of EM challenges
Maurice Obstfeld says emerging markets and developing economies account for more than two-thirds of revisions; largest changes come in Brazil, where the MPC meets today
Brazilian paper charts impact of inflation signal on expectations
Agents update forecasts immediately after new information is released and the impact of new information is dependent on ‘precision’, a working paper suggests
Monetary policy easing increases systemic risk-taking, paper finds
Brazilian domestic monetary policy is more statistically significant in this regard than foreign monetary policy, working paper suggests
Brazil will adopt ‘necessary measures’ to control inflation, says Tombini
Tombini tells finance minister he expects inflation to return to midpoint of target range by the end of 2017; Brazil inflation breaches 10% for 2015
Room for monetary policy stimulus has ‘narrowed’ in many EMs, World Bank report warns
Little room left to use monetary or fiscal stimulus in event of growth shock in some countries, report says, pointing to role for structural reform
Brazil private growth expectations slide further
Brazilian economy will contract by 3.62% this year with inflation breaching the 10% barrier, private institutions say
East African countries top Brookings table on inclusion
Study by think tank in Washington, DC, evaluates inclusion efforts in 21 diverse countries; Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda achieve high scores across categories
IMF economists release study on LTV and DTI limits in six countries
Working paper studies the implementation and effectiveness of loan-to-value and debt-service-to-income limits in Brazil, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Poland, Romania and South Korea
Central banks expect South American inflation to stabilise
Inflation rising in several countries in South America, but central bank heads in region suggest it will ‘moderate’ when supply shocks dissipate and exchange rates normalise