Ben Bernanke
Bailey switches sides as BoE holds at 4% in 5–4 decision
Members’ views, published for first time, show disagreement around staff’s central projection
DFAST monoculture is its own test
Drop in frequency and scope of stress test disclosures makes it hard to monitor bank mimicry of Fed models
Book notes: Bankers’ trust, by Aditi Sahasrabuddhe
A novel investigation into how trust among central bankers – or lack thereof – helped and worsened crises of the past
BoE publishes SVAR model in response to Bernanke review
Flexible model designed to provide “structural narrative” to understand forecast revisions
Forecasting and narratives under uncertainty
Jagjit Chadha argues the Bank of England should deploy better analysis as the basis for clear communication under uncertainty
Can Bessent lower 10-year yields? Investors have their doubts
Unconventional tools won’t sway bond markets, say buy-siders, with yields as likely to go higher as lower
2024: The year in central banking
A look back at the biggest and most popular news stories of the year
Heterogeneous agents and non-linearities rare in main models
Semi-structural models continue to be dominant choice of main forecast model at central banks
Malaysia’s Zeti on the key skills needed to be a successful central banker
The Bank Negara veteran speaks about leadership skills, lessons from the AFC and 1MDB crises, her scepticism of inflation targeting, and how the Asia School of Business' masters synthesises theory with practical realities
Lessons learned on macro-pru policies
Macro-prudential tools are proving their worth although use cases vary by country; integration into over-arching policy frameworks remains a challenge
How (not) to review your monetary policy framework
The Fed made some mistakes in its last strategy review. As it prepares to have another go, it could learn from other central banks
Are low-level inflation targets still fit for purpose?
Geostrategic shifts make the case for a narrow price target less compelling
What is forecasting for? Bernanke and the future of BoE projections
The Bernanke review pushes central banks to rethink the role of forecasts in policy-making, but it also shies away from solving a key paradox in the process
Bernanke urges regular policy reviews at BoE
Former Fed chair recommends reviews of “policy implementation and framework”
BoE hints at possible cuts before Fed
Rate cuts may exceed market expectations, Andrew Bailey says
Taking stock of Bernanke: the original sin of forecasting
Jagjit Chadha says the Bernanke review of forecasting should be the start of a more profound discussion at the Bank of England
Bernanke calls for total redesign of BoE forecasting
Report calls for major changes to infrastructure, core models, staffing, communications and more
Bank of England: time for fourth-generation forecasting tools?
Economists suggest ways to improve BoE’s framework ahead of Bernanke’s report
Fixing forecasting at the Bank of England
Ahead of the launch of the Bernanke review, NIESR’s Stephen Millard makes the case for three key changes to the BoE’s forecasting
Pandemic inflation fuelled by food and energy prices – BoJ study
Inflation in Japan and US driven by similar product market shocks, research finds
Bailey hints at possible outcome of Bernanke review
Bank of England may present range of scenarios around central forecast