Economics
Bank of Greece foresees ‘uncontrollable crisis’ if talks fail
Central bank weighs in with bleak prognosis for life without the euro as talks go to the wire; next Eurogroup meeting on June 18 offers last chance
Driving the ‘new normal’: stability, urbanisation and innovation
Gu Shengzu, vice-chairman of the Financial and Economic Affairs Committee of the Twelfth National People’s Congress, writes about the major elements that will drive China's economy
Outlook brightens for eurozone SME financing, ECB reports
Report shows access to financing improved over the most recent period surveyed, but the very smallest firms are still struggling and outcomes are diverse across countries
RBA paper unpacks central bank’s DSGE model
Authors shed light on adapted DSGE model used in Australia, emphasising its deliberate simplicity so additional features can be bolted on as needed
Cross-border claims end upward rise, BIS data shows
Latest international banking statistics show global cross-border claims in slight decline after three consecutive quarters on the rise; claims on non-banks rise strongly however
Riksbank’s new approach to nowcasting reviewed
Article in Economic Review evaluates the forecasting performance of a dynamic factor model adopted by Sweden's central bank, finding it a useful addition to its suite of tools
Bank of Korea torn between debt and demand
The central bank in Asia's fourth biggest economy is grappling with how to set policy when the country carries a private debt burden that could increase in size no matter the strategy
Norges Bank faces ‘ripple effects’ from oil price collapse
Norway heading in opposite direction to generally favourable global trend, central bank’s annual report warns; banking sector profitable and resilient nonetheless
BoE draws lessons from Thomas Piketty
Income inequality has the potential to destabilise both financial and real sectors, and is increasingly garnering attention from central bankers, as the BoE’s quarterly bulletin highlights
Draghi defends Greek waiver decision in heated parliament session
ECB president defends bond-waiver decision and dismisses ‘popular mistakes’ over the disbursement of profits, having to raise his voice over heckling from MEPs
Greek debt deal marks start of rough road
Negotiations on Friday ended in a compromise stacked in Germany’s favour; although disaster has been temporarily averted there are more battles to come, and Greece’s funding remains tight
Good data vital for effective financial inclusion policies
With the World Bank soon to release the first update to its global financial inclusion database, Central Banking speaks to the Alliance for Financial Inclusion on the importance of good data
BoE wartime minutes show sharp contrast between Court of then and now
Minutes from 1914-1946 show an evolving Court of Directors, but one radically different from today; the latest release covers both World Wars and the Great Depression
Pent-up wage cuts an 'important force' during recovery, San Francisco Fed researchers find
Many firms were unable to reduce wages during the recession, and the 'pent-up' reductions have influenced the recovery, argue authors
Money-inflation link shows signs of breaking down - Bundesbank paper
Researchers present evidence that money growth and inflation are losing synchronicity in the medium- to long-run, although the relationship still holds in the very long-run
G-20 Brisbane Summit: What to look for
Leaders of the G-20 countries meet this weekend to try to thrash out a deal on financial stability, growth and employment; Central Banking looks at some of the main issues on the table
Spain ‘decoupled’ from other eurozone economies, says Banque de France paper
Working paper warns Spanish economy’s convergence with eurozone is ‘sluggish and incomplete’, with the sharpest decoupling beginning a year before the sovereign debt crisis
Banque de France paper studies welfare cost of uncertainty
Banque de France working paper finds that the term structure of welfare costs ‘varies substantially, predictably and with a volatility that decreases with maturity’
SBP annual report highlights year of ‘critical’ changes
Governor highlights major amendments to the State Bank of Pakistan’s operations that are currently being considered by Parliament; accounts show rise in both profits and governor’s salary
Chile’s economy affected by commodities price shocks, says central bank governor
Commodity price shocks can 'be transmitted to the rest of the economy, even when countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies are in place', argues the Central Bank of Chile governor
Yellen ‘greatly’ concerned by inequality in US
Fed chair takes unusual step of addressing inequality in her speech at a Boston Fed conference; explores four ‘building blocks’ of economic opportunity
BIS paper tackles redistributive effects of regulation
Working paper studies how regulation tips welfare in favour of the real economy or financial sector, and suggests how regulators might deliver a Pareto improvement
Banque de France ‘significantly’ improves research output
External review of central bank research finds ‘significant rise in quantity and quality’ in past six years; suggests improvements in communication with policy-makers
European economists analyse global value chains
Bank of Portugal working paper analyses the global value chains in the eurozone and underlines the core role of Germany in production linkages