Macroeconomics
Book notes: A few hares to chase, by Alan Bollard
The former Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor has produced a interesting account of the life of engineer-turned-economist Bill Phillips
BIS paper: money growth-inflation link weakens, credit link grows
Authors find money growth is less important in driving price changes, but credit growth is becoming a more critical factor in financial crises
Trinidad and Tobago governor predicts GDP contraction of up to 2.5%
Contraction of 2.5% expected amid falling oil prices; co-ordinated fiscal, monetary and structural reforms would increase recovery's chance of success, Hilaire says
Slow growth need not be the ‘new normal’ – Richmond Fed paper
Authors give reasons for optimism about the future of US economic growth, and outline policies that could support it, although most are outside the control of the central bank
Greek deal unlocks funds but delays debt relief
Deal allows possibility of future debt relief but drops IMF’s stronger demands; pushes most difficult decisions back
BoE economists map current account dangers across OECD
Treating the current account as equivalent to the balance of trade could blind economists to the risks posed by large deficits, say Kristin Forbes, Ida Hjortsoe and Tsvetelina Nenova
Fischer: improve estimates of long-run equilibrium rate
Fed vice-chair speaks at conference honouring US economist Michael Woodford; stresses need for "faster potential growth" as US nears full employment
Iran must contain liquidity growth to safeguard inflation success, IMF’s Lipton says
Speaking at the Iranian central bank, David Lipton discusses how inflation can be anchored in single digits, after steadily declining in past year
IMF issues stark warning to UK on EU exit
Bank of England could find itself battling market dislocation and “substantial” economic slowdown if UK votes to leave EU, IMF warns; Christine Lagarde dismisses accusations of political meddling
Spanish paper explores low TFP growth during expansion
Working paper notes total factor productivity fell between 1995 and 2007 despite solid growth rates in the economy; highlights misallocation of production factors within industry
Malaysian governor explores sustainable finance tools
Muhammad bin Ibrahim sees potential for asset class backed by carbon credit-based solutions but structured using Islamic finance principles
Borio: Pluralism may not be answer to weakness in international system
Claudio Borio sees the “main problem” in the international monetary and financial system as the lack of an effective anchor, and is not sure greater pluralism addresses this
Fed presidents get to grips with weaker productivity data
John Williams and Neel Kashkari discuss short- and long-term factors that could be depressing productivity growth; latest data reveals further slide in quarterly figures
Bundesbank's Dombret draws lessons from European CMU for Asia
As Europe constructs its capital markets union, it could offer relevant lessons for Asian economies as they look to finance infrastructure demand in the region, Bundesbank's Dombret says
Sub-Saharan African countries need more responsive policy – IMF staff
Some central banks “impeded” in pursuit of primary mandate; staff report discourages government and structural development financing
Poloz upbeat on US and Canadian productivity prospects
Bank of Canada governor explores evolution of international trade; it may have fallen, but there are still opportunities for productivity growth, Poloz says
BoJ survey reveals growing pessimism over economy
Share of respondents who expect conditions to worsen over coming year rises to over one-third, although most believe conditions have stayed the same over the past 12 months, and will do so again
IMF director calls for fiscal expansion in eurozone
Greek attempts to consolidate fiscal position by increasing top tax rates ‘simply not working’, director says
Italian deputy governor calls for fiscal expansion in eurozone
Some eurozone countries should follow fiscally expansionary policies, Bank of Italy deputy governor argues; policy so far has been “less expansionary” than other major economies
Norges Bank deputy pits Keynes against Hayek
Jon Nicolaisen says European countries may have invoked the lessons of Keynes without paying heed to the warnings of Hayek – both views are needed to avoid problems
IMF working paper assess fiscal councils
Research considers the efficacy of independent fiscal institutions in “taming the deficit bias” that emerged in the 1970s, as well as assessing their performance more recently
IMF urges action to prevent global economy ‘stalling’ and ease central bank burden
Maurice Obstfeld highlights risk of “widespread secular stagnation” as IMF publishes latest WEO; details fiscal and structural support needed to ease burden on monetary policy
Perceived long-term eurozone deflation risk unaffected by oil – paper
Between 2010 and 2012, perceived short-term deflation risk was “significantly” affected by oil prices, while medium-term risk was only affected between 2013 and 2015, research suggests
Lower real interest rates may harm productivity growth, researchers say
Lower real interest rates may reduce productivity growth rates, researchers say; Italy and Spain have suffered low or negative TFP growth during existence of euro