Bank of Canada sees ‘modest effect’ from Brexit

The Bank of Canada

The UK's vote to leave the EU will shave 20 basis points off global GDP by the end of 2018, according to the Bank of Canada – which it describes as a "modest effect" in its latest monetary policy report.

It expects the vote to reduce Canadian GDP by 10bp over the same period, reflecting limited direct trade exposure. Only 3.5% of Canadian exports go to the UK. This estimate incorporates "some second-round effects", the report said.

The projection assumes there is an "orderly exit" from the union

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