Data
Fed liftoff pushed some rates down – Riksbank paper
Researchers find hike in policy rate lowered average interest rates on subprime lending, and narrowed spreads with the less risky section of the market, using novel "scraped" data set
MAS director hails work on natural catastrophe data
Bernard Wee introduces Natural Catastrophe Data Analytics Exchange, aimed at remedying “gappy” expertise in the region
Research digs into disagreement about inflation expectations
Paper published by Reserve Bank of Australia examines how the disagreement within stakeholder groups about inflation expectations has evolved
IMF working paper sees regulation as key driver of decline in foreign lending
Research contends regulatory tightening is behind much of the ‘sluggishness’ in international banking since the crisis; exploits survey data compiled in preparation for GFSR
BoE searches for better data on macro-financial links
As part of efforts to crack the UK’s productivity puzzle, the BoE plans improved data-gathering, seeking insight into the impact of capital accumulation and access to finance
Policy-makers could use fraud patterns as economic indicator – paper
Positive relationship exists between bank fraud and the macroeconomy, Chicago Fed risk specialist finds, suggesting fraud could offer an early warning sign of crisis
Sweden’s Riksbank has mixed forecasting performance, report finds
Riksbank “relatively good” at projecting growth and unemployment, but less so when it comes to the policy rate; this is “notable” and not “particularly satisfactory”, report notes
Inflation and unemployment affect wage rigidity, Icelandic authors find
Research challenges New Keynesian assumption that timings of wage changes are exogenous, showing level of inflation and unemployment also matter
Charlie Bean calls for ‘culture changes’ at ONS in final statistics report
ONS should set up two centres to better measure economic activity, Bean says; using these centres will allow the ONS to fully ‘capture’ the digital economy
BIS paper finds forecasters put too much faith in private information
‘Noisy information model’ of inflation forecasting implies forecasters put inefficient weightings on private information to differentiate themselves
BIS stats show further retreat in global banking flows
Falling claims on China drive bulk of overall reduction in cross-border claims, but pace of decline slows compared with previous quarter
Debelle highlights ‘rich potential’ in regulatory data
Regulatory reporting is still in its infancy, but already useful trends are starting to emerge, the RBA assistant governor says
Modern central banks need big data strategy, Riksbank economists say
Central banks need to adapt to growing data volumes, but the organisational changes required could help departments work together more closely, economists say
Bean calls for overhaul of UK statistics
Report dissecting UK statistics production calls for national statistics office to become more agile, make use of new forms of data, and tackle shortcomings
Presentation of big data key to inspiring research, academic argues
New York University professor says financial regulators need to learn from large-scale scientific projects and online retailers to encourage ‘research communities’
The big data revolution and central banking
Central banks are increasingly turning their attention to the challenge of analysing very large datasets. But is ‘big data’ as revolutionary as some claim?