Data
IMF unveils first vintage of macro-prudential data
Database is the first global source of information on macro-prudential institutions, indicating an overall tightening in policy in 2016
High-frequency data could improve GDP estimates – RBI researchers
Initial data releases tend to be revised upwards, the authors find
Haldane envisages ‘iterative’ approach to advancing economics
Deductive and inductive approaches “need to share a broadly equal billing”, BoE chief economist says, setting out how the central bank has made use of big data
Emerging markets still taking on dollar debts, BIS data shows
Rapid growth in credit to emerging markets echoed by broader rises in global liquidity
Bank of Lithuania improves data accessibility in new website
Redesign offers videos and infographics to explain key policies; audience has increased by 10%
Claims on offshore centres at record high – BIS data
Overall cross-border claims “gained momentum” in Q4 2017
BoE goes granular with data experiment
UK central bank announces successful data proof of concept looking to store, organise and combine data based on the XBRL standard
Growth in the digital economy has scrambled statistics – IMF paper
Countries may have been understating GDP growth, while overstating inflation, IMF analysis reveals, as digital products skew prices
High-frequency data helps capture ‘psychological subtlety’ – BoJ paper
Study of “tick-by-tick” data finds markets have become more sensitive to the central bank’s policy announcements
IMF unveils new data strategy
Fund’s first ever “overarching strategy” on data envisages new approach to gathering, processing and sharing statistics
Neural network learns ‘universal model’ for stock-price moves
Relationships between order flow and price “are stable through time, and across stocks and sectors”
Measuring Venezuela’s hyperinflation
Steve Hanke discusses how economists can make use of high-frequency exchange rate data to track rapid price movements in Venezuela
Solving the owner-occupied housing puzzle
A group of researchers has outlined what they see as a better method of integrating owner-occupied housing into the CPI, as the EU’s statistical agency wrestles with the problem
UK figures reveal 1.47 million people out of work
While the employment rate has continued to rise, the rate of unemployment has increased by the sharpest level in almost five years
UK inflation refuses to budge from 3%
Despite a decline in oil price pressure, UK inflation remains above target; latest figures increase the likelihood of the Bank of England raising rates in May
Inflation falls in the euro area despite stronger growth
Annual price increases expected to fall to 1.3% in January, Eurostat says
Rebased ‘Maddison’ data reshapes economic history
New approach to measuring GDP per capita generates fresh insights from the long-run growth database
Big data can give valuable labour market signal – Fed paper
High-frequency private payroll data is useful in forecasting the labour market, researchers find
Higher inflation in Norway supports tighter outlook
Norges Bank brings forward its first planned rate hike to late 2018
BoE paper lays out ‘financial conditions index’ for UK
Index proves valuable as a summary measure and also as an input to forecasting
FCA mulls use of AI to tackle money laundering
Crime unit head says the financial regulator views machine learning as a complement to human judgement, not a replacement
Big data in central banks focus report 2017
The second Central Banking Journal focus report on big data expands on the original study from 2016, assessing how challenges have evolved in the past year.
The rapid evolution of data
As big data enters the mainstream, it is critical to understand how it can transform our thinking, but also to be realistic about its shortcomings and biases
NY Fed paper estimates US contagion risks
Authors design a network model incorporating non-banks to estimate how the risk of a “default cascade” has changed over time