Data
Monitoring the labour market is key – BoE’s Saunders
Bank of England’s MPC member says unemployment should stay below the equilibrium 5% estimate in 2017 – but, should “warning signs appear”, changes to forecasts could be made
BoE paper tackles big data on Swiss franc de-pegging
Trade repository data sheds light on liquidity problems and market fragmentation around the removal of the SNB’s Swiss franc floor in January 2015
News cycle can give estimate of business cycle – Norges Bank paper
Index derived from business newspaper is both more timely and more accurate than traditional business cycle indicators, author says
Paper uses Swedish refugee data to assess financial literacy
Authors say the randomly determined placement of refugees in Sweden provides a handy natural experiment on how financial literacy can spread
Central banks working to overhaul data-sharing
IFC report finds many central banks are seeking ways to better share micro data, both internally and externally
Updated Bank of Mauritius survey questions people on inflation causes
Latest survey shows Mauritian stakeholders are wary of external factors; exchange rate was viewed as second most important factor under new question format
Economic growth on the horizon for Finland, says Liikanen
Improved productivity and higher employment are needed to boost economic growth, says Finnish governor; Bank of Finland’s forecasts show recovery will be slower than in previous cycles
BoE unveils database of macro-prudential policies
Researchers attempt to classify the myriad forms of macro-prudential policy, compiling panel data on when policies were tightened and loosened in different countries
OECD expects growth boost from Trump infrastructure plans
Organisation says “well targeted” public spending could help economies escape slow growth, though it warns protectionism might undo the benefits
Norges Bank paper presents new evidence on immigration impact
Authors seek to disentangle immigration shock from broader macroeconomic effects, using unique Norwegian data series
Central Bank of Brazil establishes data portal
Central bank creates hub for 454 data sets, combining data from government database and other sources; bank has plans to launch data promotion scheme in 2017
IMF lifts censure on Argentinian inflation
Inflation and GDP figures now in line with international standards, fund acknowledges; Lagarde praises Argentinian authority’s efforts to reform statistical agency
The data deluge
Big data can help economists overcome weak theories and improve our knowledge, but it also comes with with larger pitfalls
Dallas Fed research seeks to improve real-time inflation forecasts
Economists break surveys of inflation expectations down into parts, finding stripping out the noise component improves forecasting
Harnessing growing data volumes: The St Louis Fed
Huge demand for macroeconomic data that is easily accessible, international and granular is driving the rise of this global data hub. Daniel Hinge meets the Fred team
Data as a critical factor for central banks
Central banks must industrialise data-handling processes to deliver better decision-making, says Maciej Piechocki of BearingPoint
Big data in central banking: 2016 survey
Results and analysis of a survey examining how central banks view big data and data governance in their institutions
Bank of Namibia revises growth forecasts
Latest economic outlook warns lower production from the mining sector will have an impact on GDP levels for this year, but growth is expected to pick up in 2017
AnaCredit: banking with (pretty) big data
The supranational credit database in Europe will help policy-makers and banks assess cross-border risk when it goes live in 2018, writes Aurel Schubert, director-general of the European Central Bank’s statistics department
Sponsored forum: Evaluating big data capabilities in central banking
Central Banking convened a panel of experts to discuss the big questions about big data, how and where it can add value to central banking in the near term, and balancing the pros against the cons
Blanchard and Acalin warn of FDI measurement problems
Measured foreign direct investment is not as long term as generally thought, often reflecting transient capital flows and responding to US monetary policy, economists find
Output gap in euro area is much larger than official estimates – paper
Official estimates predict output gap 3–4% less negative than author’s results; current models do not “adequately capture” inflation developments
Evaluating big data capabilities in central banking
Central Banking convened a panel of experts to discuss how big data can add value to central banking in the near term, the need for good governance, and balancing the pros against the cons
UK inflation jump to 1% is just ‘tip of the iceberg’
Latest inflation data shows leap from 0.6% in August to 1% in September; former MPC member Sentance says this is just tip of the iceberg