Economics
Doyne Farmer’s next big adventure: capturing the universe
Complexity theorist plans to build an economic super-simulator on a global scale
US unemployment falls sharply in May
Unemployment rate declined to 13.3% from 14.7% in April, despite widespread fears it would rise
Bundesbank paper looks at effective lower bound
Modellers can use survey information to reduce impact of ELB on yield decompositions, author says
Phillips curve flatter when inflation is low – researchers
Downward wage and price rigidities cause non-linearity in Phillips curve, says Peterson Institute paper
US disinflation accelerated in April
Core inflation sees steepest drop since the 9/11 attacks
Banxico forecasts Mexican economy could fall by 8.8% in 2020
Central bank stresses the profound uncertainty to which the economy is subject
Record hiring needed to reach pre-crisis unemployment by end-2021 – paper
Hiring four times faster than most robust pace in Great Recession still not enough, researchers find
European Commission pushes for €750 billion budget expansion
Shared financial resources designed to support weakest EU members while spreading cost
US consumers expect more fiscal support – New York Fed survey
Consumers assigned a 40% chance of more federal welfare benefits in next 12 months
Eurozone approaching ECB’s worst-case scenario – Lagarde
Economy likely to shrink by over 10% in 2020, says ECB president
BoE paper: mining newspaper text can boost forecasts
Authors design “powerful new method” of incorporating text information into macroeconomic forecasts
Economists challenge standard notion of labour market recovery
Paper on post-crisis recoveries questions demand shortfall narrative
Covid-19 biggest threat to Fed mandate ‘in our lifetimes’ – Clarida
Fed may not provide further forward guidance until September, Richard Clarida says
UK issues negative-yielding bond as inflation wilts
Inflation dropped sharply in April amid the coronavirus lockdown
Lagarde welcomes Franco-German fund plan
Covid-19 response fund would be drawn from common EU budget
Lower-income households feel worst of Covid-19 economic shock – Fed survey
Nearly 40% of low-earning households faced at least one job loss in March, survey finds
RBI economists hunt for suitable core inflation measure
Study examines 11 candidates for a less volatile inflation measure that is easy to communicate
Economists race to merge epidemiology and macro
Promising results are emerging, but workable forecasts may be some way off
Pandemic debt will test policy-makers – Richmond Fed research
Authorities may opt for “financial repression” policies with central banks keeping rates low – paper
German banks’ capital levels affect loan supply – Bundesbank paper
Authors find balance sheet data shows loan supply has positive elasticity to capital levels
UK economy faces 30% contraction in Q2
NIESR estimate comes as official GDP figures show sharp decline in opening stages of lockdown
Covid-19 may accelerate US firms’ turn away from China – New York Fed
Import data shows firms have used non-Chinese suppliers to replace some lost trade
Scale of Covid-19 impact shows up starkly in US stats
All of the US’s key macroeconomic indicators point to a dramatic slump
The IFF China Report 2020
Insight and perspectives from the world's leaders, premier policy-makers and financiers