Economics
Blanchard calls for rethink on costs of debt
Fiscal cost of public debt may be zero, macroeconomist argues, but that does not make debt costless
India vulnerable to oil shocks – RBI research
Study weighs effects of oil shocks on current account, inflation and government finances
US payrolls data proves strong
Non-farm payrolls beat expectations and wage growth rises, despite fears of a global slowdown
Conventional models beat machine learning in predicting crises, paper finds
Bundesbank paper contrasts performance of logit approach to machine learning
Price shocks worse with poorly anchored inflation expectations – IMF paper
Inflation rises less and falls quicker after shocks when expectations are well anchored, study finds
Euro area wage growth appears sustainable – ECB bulletin
ECB wage analysis shows increases are no longer being driven primarily by ‘wage drift’
Causes of liquidity traps are ‘crucial’ to policy response – BdF paper
Liquidity traps caused by investor deleveraging may not respond to QE, researchers say
EME banks have ‘substantially’ increased global footprint – BIS research
Study finds emerging market banks have taken a greater role as their home economies have grown
Google’s data tool has potential for countries with data gaps – IMF research
Authors explore how search queries can be used to track human behaviour, which could be used to map macroeconomic indicators
BoE paper outlines DSGE model of financial and real frictions
“Channels of effect” run between financial markets and labour markets, authors find
Lower oil prices and stronger lira send Turkey and Argentina diverging
In 2019, analysts expect inflation to drop sharply in Argentina and to bounce back in Turkey
Angola improves data transparency with new hub
Statistics deemed “critical” by the International Monetary Fund will be published in one place
Cleveland Fed launches centre for inflation research
Bank plans to make its inflation conference annual rather than bi-annual
Bank lending standards can worsen financial frictions, ECB paper finds
Model shows tighter lending standards can damage productivity, researcher argues
Fed to expand market data collection efforts
The scope and availability of data must keep up with evolving markets, Lael Brainard says
Bank of England to overhaul consumer interest rate statistics
Changes are designed to ensure the statistics reflect consumers’ experiences “as closely as possible”
French banking crisis of 1930s far worse than previously thought – BdF paper
Central bank policies worsened crisis, Banque de France paper says
ECB and EBA action may have limited CoCo contagion – BoI paper
Deutsche Bank CoCos spread volatility throughout European banks in 2016, researchers find
Machine learning model outperforms professional forecasters
The model may uncover new relationships in data that were previously overlooked, researcher says
Podcast: The post-crisis world
Andrew Metrick says central banks have changed dramatically since 2008, but more work may be needed to develop new models
ECB unveils richer eurozone forecasting model
“NAWM II” models financial sector’s role in originating and propagating economic shocks