Economics
Stress tests vulnerable to ‘model risk’ – Bundesbank paper
Small changes in models can lead to big differences in results, researchers find
Europe’s ‘zombie lending’ harmed recovery – BoE paper
Forbearance appears to harm output, investment and total factor productivity, paper finds
Trade tensions could ripple among South-east Asian nations – Menon
Rising leverage ratios a key risk for EM Asia, but the region is more resilient
Central bank outlook is key to rate decisions’ impact – Bundesbank paper
“Pure policy” and “information” shocks have very different effects on economy, researcher argues
China resorts to fiscal policy to stimulate slowing economy
China says it plans more fiscal stimulus while maintaining prudential monetary policy
BIS book outlines macro-financial policy framework
“Integrated inflation targeting” would combine policies for maximum effect, authors say
ECB paper analyses eurozone’s interest rate swap market
Trading is concentrated around a small number of core participants, researchers find
BoE economists build news-based growth indicator
Newspaper articles can be boiled down to a useful early indicator of economic activity, they say
Micro variables are best warning signs for smaller Italian banks – BoI
Bank of Italy presents early-warning system for crises in less significant lenders
Book notes: Where economics went wrong, by David Colander and Craig Freedman
Chicago economics’ gladiatorial debating style has cost the discipline dearly, the authors argue
Bundesbank paper analyses G10 currencies
Industrialised countries’ currencies differ in their influence on each other, researchers find
Trump’s tariffs may have caused inflation – researchers
Estimates indicate tariffs may have already contributed 0.1 percentage points to CPI, authors find
Polarised labour market has left low-skilled workers vulnerable – research
Technology and globalisation have hit wages of less skilled urban workers, says David Autor
SBP launches Islamic facility to fund renewables and SMEs
Central bank looks to supply liquidity to key industries
World is not running out of safe assets – BIS’s McCauley
Supply of safe assets can comfortably meet demand at present, BIS economist says
US bank interconnectedness is falling – San Fran Fed paper
New method focuses on idiosyncratic factors to identify possible links, researchers say
Phillips curve still applies to Sweden, Riksbank researcher says
Firm-level data indicates that traditional relationship still holds, paper argues
Buffers should not be rebuilt too quickly – Bank of Canada paper
Requirements should be lower during crisis recovery to avoid bank default, researcher argues
ECB prevented further eurozone deflation, BdF paper says
Researchers say inflation and GDP growth would have entered negative territory in 2015–17
BoE paper outlines results of uncertainty experiment
Decision-maker panel seeks to gauge business uncertainty in the context of Brexit
Chinese lending hits all-time high in January
Total social financing reached roughly 240% of China’s GDP at end of month
GDP needs to be supplemented with welfare measure – economist
Daniel Sichel defends GDP as a measure of production, but says it is not enough on its own