Economics
Philadelphia paper explores drivers of bankruptcy decisions
Working paper examines the extent to which the structure of a household’s balance sheet and income statement influences its decision to file for bankruptcy in the wake of an income shock
IMF paper offers alternative explanation for Venezuelan inflation
Working paper argues fall in oil prices combined with restrictions in foreign exchange best explains hyperinflation in Venezuela, rather than a self-reinforcing rise in expectations
IMF urges Abenomics ‘reload’ as BoJ struggles
Fund tells Japanese authorities to be clearer and more systematic in setting policy, as government unveils new stimulus; working paper suggests alternative to helicopter money
ECB bulletin says institutional reform important for increasing resilience
Governing institutions in eurozone countries need reform, the ECB says; Finland’s institutions are among very best in OECD but those of Greece and Italy are close to worst
ECB data reveals changes in eurozone wage rigidity
ECB publishes its third survey of wage dynamics in the eurozone; it argues data is “crucial” to designing monetary and other macroeconomic policies
IMF’s crisis performance criticised by internal review
Report evaluates IMF’s handling of eurozone crises from 2010 to 2013; work during programme design and implementation described as ‘uneven’ and concerns raised over political pressure
Dutch paper explores information content of asset prices for inflation
Working paper finds high asset prices can be an indicator of either high or low inflation, though more commonly the former; considers information content of range of financial variables
European banks’ structure helps drive dollar-denominated debt issuance – paper
Bank of Spain paper examines the most prolific dollar-denominated debt issuers among European banks, finding issuance is driven by range of factors, including desire to hedge
Irish central bank warns of ‘negative and material’ impact from Brexit
Quarterly bulletin discusses channels through which UK vote to leave EU will affect Ireland; economy expected to grow by 4.9% this year and 3.7% next
Bank of Italy paper aims to improve on EC current account model
Research offers a new model of external adjustment; the EC’s model tends to mis-state cyclically adjusted current account balances of large eurozone economies, researchers argue
IMF paper examines impact of debt restructurings on growth
Growth usually declines after debt restructurings, but it can boost performance if the country exits a default spell, the authors find
Atlanta Fed paper demonstrates signalling mechanism in mortgage market
Lenders in mortgage market able to reveal quality of loans by delaying trade, authors find; loans sold five months after origination less likely to default
BoE agents see firms aiming for ‘business as usual’ in wake of Brexit
Agents’ post-Brexit review shows housing market resilience while there are reports of some firms look to relocate back to the UK in wake of sterling depreciation; IMF updates forecasts
IMF’s Lipton argues for greater economic inclusion in South Africa
David Lipton urges reforms to remedy the fact that one-third of the working population is “effectively excluded” from the economy; suggests policies to build confidence and lift growth
Bank of Italy sees Brexit having little impact on country
Commercial and financial links between Britain and Italy are much more limited than other European countries, argues the Bank of Italy in its latest economic bulletin
ECB publishes guide to its macroeconomic projections
European Central Bank publishes guide to how its staff research and publish their regular projections for the eurozone economy; gives details of models and tools used
RBNZ can evaluate forecasts using benchmarks – McDermott
Inflation has been weaker and the NZ dollar stronger than the central bank forecast, assistant governor says; can gain insight from comparing its forecast with others
Bank of Canada sees ‘modest effect’ from Brexit
Canadian and US central bankers size up cost of UK’s vote to leave the EU; Carolyn Wilkins and Patrick Harker do not see large impact on growth from direct trade effects
Short-sale disclosure rules can distort securities prices, Bundesbank paper says
European Union transparency conditions may have led to distortions in the prices of German securities by deterring short-sellers, discussion paper argues
Inflation expectations shaped by different forces in short and long term – BoE research
UK households are influenced by perceptions of actual inflation, but other factors grow in importance in the longer run, quarterly bulletin article finds
Network analysis sheds light on systemic risk – BoE paper
Pilot study of derivatives markets makes use of CDS data to map network of interlinkages, finding more than just immediate counterparty ties matter for systemic risk
Iceland’s new macroeconomic council faces up to wage challenges
Collaboration between government, central bank and labour market groups aims to bring bouts of rapid wage growth under control and better co-ordinate policy
IMF paper explores impact of financial development on wealth dispersion
Authors focus on China between 1995 and 2002; suggest lower access barriers and a deeper market can “greatly improve” welfare
Nouy sees need for rethink of reporting systems
Danièle Nouy says new thinking is needed to help banks and supervisors deal with a ‘paradigm shift’ in data collection; European reporting framework for all banks should be considered