RBNZ better at forecasting growth and inflation than exchange rate, notes study
Economists compare judgement-based forecasts with benchmark set by suite of statistical models
The forecasts presented in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) monetary policy statements (MPS) tend to compare well to a benchmark of statistical models, but both types of model struggle to predict the exchange rate, according to an article published on August 18.
Published in the RBNZ's August Bulletin, the article by Geordie Reid checks the accuracy of models used in the MPS against the RBNZ's "statistical model-combination" forecasts, which merge the results of a range of statistical
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