Economics
Borio: Pluralism may not be answer to weakness in international system
Claudio Borio sees the “main problem” in the international monetary and financial system as the lack of an effective anchor, and is not sure greater pluralism addresses this
Fed presidents get to grips with weaker productivity data
John Williams and Neel Kashkari discuss short- and long-term factors that could be depressing productivity growth; latest data reveals further slide in quarterly figures
German supervisors need more granular data – IMF staff
Staff say concerns about a housing bubble “look premature” but better data would help the authorities be prepared for imbalances; urge faster progress on structural reforms
Researchers conduct ‘horse race’ of financial crisis early-warning models
Statistical approaches based on machine learning appear to offer more robust early warnings of financial crisis than models based on more conventional techniques, two researchers say
US data can help nowcast Canadian growth, paper finds
Working paper published by Fed board introduces US data into dynamic factor model used for nowcasting the quarterly real GDP growth rate
Aussie dollar drops as RBA cuts inflation outlook
Reserve Bank of Australia cuts forecasts for headline and underlying inflation; lowered its key rate by 25bp to 1.75% earlier this week
Bundesbank's Dombret draws lessons from European CMU for Asia
As Europe constructs its capital markets union, it could offer relevant lessons for Asian economies as they look to finance infrastructure demand in the region, Bundesbank's Dombret says
Sub-Saharan African countries need more responsive policy – IMF staff
Some central banks “impeded” in pursuit of primary mandate; staff report discourages government and structural development financing
Nonlinear models struggle to outperform VARs, Azerbaijani paper finds
Central bank’s first working paper finds various different nonlinear forecasting models perform poorly against autoregressive and VAR models, and even random walks
Bean welcomes bid to increase ONS access to public data
Reforming the legal framework will improve ONS access to administrative data, former BoE deputy says, adding the ONS must be more proactive in acquiring and producing data
Researchers explore link between rates and consumption in new model
Working paper published by ECB examines transmission mechanism of monetary policy in a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model
Poloz upbeat on US and Canadian productivity prospects
Bank of Canada governor explores evolution of international trade; it may have fallen, but there are still opportunities for productivity growth, Poloz says
Cross-border banking contraction broadens – BIS statistics
Latest cross-border banking statistics show drop in cross-border claims spread in Q4 2015 from emerging markets to broader regions; China sees particularly large drops in lending
Fed liftoff pushed some rates down – Riksbank paper
Researchers find hike in policy rate lowered average interest rates on subprime lending, and narrowed spreads with the less risky section of the market, using novel "scraped" data set
MAS director hails work on natural catastrophe data
Bernard Wee introduces Natural Catastrophe Data Analytics Exchange, aimed at remedying “gappy” expertise in the region
Research digs into disagreement about inflation expectations
Paper published by Reserve Bank of Australia examines how the disagreement within stakeholder groups about inflation expectations has evolved
BoJ survey reveals growing pessimism over economy
Share of respondents who expect conditions to worsen over coming year rises to over one-third, although most believe conditions have stayed the same over the past 12 months, and will do so again
IMF director calls for fiscal expansion in eurozone
Greek attempts to consolidate fiscal position by increasing top tax rates ‘simply not working’, director says
Paper finds Norwegian housing market is ‘micro efficient’
Research published by Norges Bank exploits dataset comprising 472,378 housing transactions; finds little persistence but a lot of reversion in sale prices
Italian deputy governor calls for fiscal expansion in eurozone
Some eurozone countries should follow fiscally expansionary policies, Bank of Italy deputy governor argues; policy so far has been “less expansionary” than other major economies
BoJ paper attempts to ditch Friedman rule with new model
Paper outlines model where mild inflation is welfare-optimising, in contrast to Milton Friedman’s rule implying mild deflation, which underpins many monetary models
Norges Bank deputy pits Keynes against Hayek
Jon Nicolaisen says European countries may have invoked the lessons of Keynes without paying heed to the warnings of Hayek – both views are needed to avoid problems
Competition in treasury auctions reduces bidder surplus, working paper finds
Data from before and after Austria’s entry into the European Union shows increased competition in bond auctions substantially reduces bidder surplus, researchers say
IMF working paper assess fiscal councils
Research considers the efficacy of independent fiscal institutions in “taming the deficit bias” that emerged in the 1970s, as well as assessing their performance more recently