Unemployment
BoE says negative rates ‘in toolbox’ and forecasts slow recovery
First “proper” forecast since Covid-19 outbreak gives little hope of a V-shaped recovery
Biden promises new Fed mandate on racial inequality
Democratic candidate wants Fed to take responsibility for economic concerns of Black Lives Matter movement
Okun’s law can help predict GDP revisions – SF Fed paper
Revisions to GDP estimates during recovery from pandemic could significantly affect policy
Kansas Fed paper looks at conditional forward guidance
Date-based forward guidance would be effective without yield curve control, research says
Female workers badly hit by pandemic job losses – IMF economist
Lower-paid workers hit hardest both by 2008 recession and slump caused by pandemic
Labour market situation is ‘complicated’ – RBA’s Lowe
Unemployment likely to worsen despite initial signs of recovery, governor says
Singapore faces most severe downturn since independence – Menon
Singapore’s economic situation remains “dire” and activity will be below pre-crisis levels “for quite a while”
Tenreyro sheds light on BoE’s ‘epi-macro’ modelling
Staff have conducted several virus simulations, but uncertainty remains high
US unemployment stats understate problem – research
Peterson Institute research says BLS figures fail to include all workers affected by pandemic
Eurozone inflation reached 0.3% in June
Eurostat estimates show significant differences in inflationary pressures between countries
Podcast: Boston Fed backs community action on Covid-19 and racial inequality
Working Cities Challenge is not only helping economic resurgence in struggling cities, but also fostering better responses to Covid-19 and racial inequality, official explains
Bernanke and Yellen join call for new fiscal stimulus in US
Former Fed chairs among 148 economists warning of “disastrous” effects if Congress fails to act
US economy entering ‘bounce back’ phase – Powell
Fed chair forced to defend move to follow through with corporate bond purchases in Senate hearing
Recession causes inequality ‘double whammy’ – research
Paper links loss of hours worked to inequality, with recessions causing a negative ratchet effect
Fed policy is too tight given FOMC projections – former Fed economist
“An outlook that bad for that long is a clear sign that policy is too tight,” Joseph Gagnon says
Fed promises to keep buying assets at current rate
Fed will hold accommodation in place for “however long it takes”, chair Jerome Powell says; FOMC releases first projections this year
US unemployment falls sharply in May
Unemployment rate declined to 13.3% from 14.7% in April, despite widespread fears it would rise
Phillips curve flatter when inflation is low – researchers
Downward wage and price rigidities cause non-linearity in Phillips curve, says Peterson Institute paper
Central banking enters a new era
Central banks face a delicate balancing act to preserve their reputations as they evolve into ‘buyers of last resort’ and some of their actions appear functionally equivalent to ‘monetary financing’
RBA’s Lowe says fiscal policy must do more in the future
Governor says nations can no longer depend on monetary policy to keep inflation under control
Banxico forecasts Mexican economy could fall by 8.8% in 2020
Central bank stresses the profound uncertainty to which the economy is subject
Record hiring needed to reach pre-crisis unemployment by end-2021 – paper
Hiring four times faster than most robust pace in Great Recession still not enough, researchers find
Economists challenge standard notion of labour market recovery
Paper on post-crisis recoveries questions demand shortfall narrative
Covid-19 biggest threat to Fed mandate ‘in our lifetimes’ – Clarida
Fed may not provide further forward guidance until September, Richard Clarida says