Unemployment
RBA governor does not rule out a rate cut in 2019
Uncertain international outlook has rebalanced policy options towards a looser approach
Fed’s 2019 stress tests to assume largest unemployment shock to date
Central bank also announces moves to enhance transparency in its stress-testing programme
‘Global inflation gap’ points to slack across advanced economies – paper
Authors find no evidence that inflation is “on the brink of surging ahead”
Sarb’s mandate will not change, president Ramaphosa says
Officials move to clarify manifesto claim following backlash
Low US unemployment unlikely to foster sudden wage growth – research
Fed projections see unemployment rate falling to 3.5% by the end of 2019
Fed can afford to be patient as global growth forecasts decline, says Clarida
Fed vice-chair says labour market is at full employment and inflation remains on target
EU labour mobility is cyclical stabiliser – paper
Common market allows migration from countries with high unemployment to markets looking for workers
Employers alter skill demands in line with unemployment, researchers find
Requirements for a bachelor’s degree increased during higher unemployment, authors find
Spending behaviour in unemployment does not fit with rational models – paper
Behavioural models of “present-biased or myopic” choices fit better with the data, authors say
US payrolls data proves strong
Non-farm payrolls beat expectations and wage growth rises, despite fears of a global slowdown
Euro area wage growth appears sustainable – ECB bulletin
ECB wage analysis shows increases are no longer being driven primarily by ‘wage drift’
Fed goes ahead with fourth hike of 2018
Policy-makers vote for hike despite volatility, but dovish language suggests growing caution
Fed presidents weigh in on December rate decision
Incoming data and recent speeches point to slightly more dovish outlook
No-deal Brexit could hit UK harder than global financial crisis, BoE says
Latest analysis from the UK central bank says growth could plummet 8% in the event of a no deal
Fed vice-chair calls for gradual normalisation
Inflation expectations may be lower than 2% target, says the Fed’s vice-chair
US inflation likely to fall below target – San Francisco Fed
Factors unrelated to economic cycle have increased their contribution to price increases in 2018
RBNZ and Fed ran similar policies despite different mandates, paper finds
New Zealand’s inflation target led to similar policies as Fed’s dual mandate, researchers find
Bank of Canada to weigh up alternatives to inflation targeting
Central bank will hold “full horse race” between nominal GDP targeting and other alternatives, Wilkins says
Machine learning model outperforms professional forecasters
The model may uncover new relationships in data that were previously overlooked, researcher says
Fed official downbeat on US labour market
US labour market participation in stark contrast to advanced-economy counterparts, Daly warns
Fed holds rates steady
FOMC points to slowdown in pace of fixed investment
US unemployment remains at lowest level since 1969
Hourly wage growth is at highest rate since 2009, but year-on-year inflation falls to 2%
RBNZ makes major changes to leadership structure
Central bank to be headed by a senior leadership team
US inflation slowdown raises policy challenges
Inflation has seen a lull, but several factors indicate it could rebound